Musk reveals humans could land on Mars in four years as US rushes to beat China – but space fans are ‘unconvinced’
THE man behind SpaceX, Elon Musk, has pledged to take humans to Mars in just four years time onboard his Starship mega-rocket.
The eccentric billionaire, who also owns Tesla and X, said Starship’s first flight to Mars will occur in two years time, when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.
Earth-Mars transfer launch windows occur every 26 months.
“These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars,” Musk wrote in a post on X, announcing the new target timelines.
“If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.”
Musk doesn’t just have hopes of taking Earthlings to the Red Planet, but of building a Martian metropolis there, too.
“Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years,” he added in the same post.
“Being multiplanetary will vastly increase the probable lifespan of consciousness, as we will no longer have all our eggs, literally and metabolically, on one planet.”
Starship, at nearly 400ft tall, with 33 engines, is the tallest rocket ever leave the ground.
It was designed from the onset to be able to carry more than 100 tons of cargo to Mars and the Moon, so it can store everything needed to build off-planet base camps.
And eventually, cities.
Not only is it the tallest rocket to ever be flown, the first stage of Starship, known as the Super Heavy booster, is the most powerful rocket ever built and can produce up to 7.6million kilograms of thrust.
That is nearly double the current record held by Nasa’s Space Launch System (SLS).
Starship is being developed as part of a $1.15billion contract with Nasa to deliver astronauts to the Moon in the US space agency’s Artemis programme.
However, the Artemis missions – which aim to put boots on the Moon for the first time since Apollo 11 – has also endured its own string of setbacks.
Call me a cynic, but until I see a permanent base on our nearest neighbor the Moon, I remain unconvinced with that timeframe.
X user
Musk, and Nasa, still believe Starship will be critical in helping humans become an interplanetary species – a long-held dream of the SpaceX founder.
The newly declared timeline came just a day after China unveiled plans for a crewed mission to Mars in 2033.
The ambitious plan, which will intensify a race with the US to plant humans on Mars, was disclosed in detail for the first time after China landed a robotic rover on Mars in mid-May in its inaugural mission to the planet.
ANALYSIS: Are we in a new space race?
By Millie Turner, Senior Technology & Science Reporter
Visions of humans on the Moon once more has sparked a renaissance for the space race of the 1960s.
While China has replaced the Soviet Union in this iteration, it is once again the US going toe-to-toe with whichever global superpower is brazen enough for the challenge.
The pair are already locked into an Earth-bound tech war, with fist-shaking over computer chips, AI and TikTok, which has somehow erupted into a race for the stars.
Nasa boss Bill Nelson hasn’t shied away from calling it a “race”, either.
Under President Xi Jinping, China spent roughly $14billion (11.2billion) on its ambitious space programme in 2023, according to Statista.
The US space agency has dominated the industry so far, though has only recently swallowed the bitter pill of scrapping the Viper Moon mission after $450million had already been spent, citing spiralling costs and delays.
Nasa’s own Mars Sample Return has also been subject to pushbacks, as the mission timeline falls back into the 2040s from its original 2028 launch date.
China’s knack for building things fast, and well, could tip the scales – effects of which we might be seeing in real-time, as the country looks set to beat Nasa to Mars.
Though I have no doubt that date will be revised at some point in the future.
And what China doesn’t have, is an Elon Musk in its back pocket.
Looking at the last space race, it’s clear a little bit of competition goes a long way, and could stoke the innovation that makes these timelines possible.
But onlookers aren’t convinced.
“Didn’t you say in 2011 you would put man on Mars in 10 years? SpaceX hasn’t even landed humans on the Moon yet,” one onlooker wrote in response to Musk’s statement on X.
Another added: “Call me a cynic, but until I see a permanent base on our nearest neighbor the Moon, I remain unconvinced with that timeframe.
“Take those rockets to the Moon first! It’s at least practice for preparing to land on and launch from another world.”
A third person said: “Full BS, not in our lifetime and you know it. This is all about keeping stock price high and attention on SpaceX.
“You cannot build a high speed rail in the US and you want to go to Mars lol.”
Starship, the rocket that would make the timeline possible, still isn’t spaceworthy.
It has flown four test missions to date – in April and November of 2023 and March and June of this year.
Each launch attempt reportedly costs the space company $40million to execute.
Though the launch vehicle has performed better on each successive flight, ticking off all its major objectives on the most recent mission.
SpaceX is currently gearing up for Starship’s fifth flight, with Starship and the Super Heavy both ready to fly, pending regulatory approval.