What Indonesia Can Gain From The Russia East Asia Forum – OpEd

The Russia East Asia Forum (REF), an initiative by Russia to strengthen ties with Asia-Pacific countries, represents a crucial platform for advancing the region's economic, political, and energy cooperation. As Russia shifts its focus eastward, the REF aims to boost the development of its underdeveloped Far East while fostering partnerships with Asian countries.

Among these partners, Indonesia stands out as a Southeast Asian economic powerhouse with significant potential to gain from participating in the REF. The strategic nature of the REF aligns with Indonesia's goals of expanding trade, enhancing energy security, and improving technological collaboration. This essay argues that Indonesia's engagement in the REF offers substantial opportunities in energy, trade, and infrastructure, despite the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and underdeveloped infrastructure.

Background

The Russia East Asia Forum emerged as a key component of Russia's "Turn to the East" policy, designed to reduce its dependence on European markets and diversify its international partnerships, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Despite being rich in natural resources such as oil, gas, and minerals, Russia's Far East remains one of the most underdeveloped regions in the country.

Through the REF, Russia seeks to attract foreign investment, build infrastructure, and create economic opportunities by tapping into the rapidly growing markets of Asia. Indonesia, as the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has increasingly become a focal point for Russia's outreach in the region. The REF provides Indonesia with a platform to collaborate with Russia in areas such as energy, maritime development, and the digital economy sectors critical to Indonesia's growth. Furthermore, the Forum can help Indonesia secure energy supplies and transfer technology from Russia, while Russia can benefit from Indonesia's strategic location and growing market. 

Problems Facing Russia East Asia Forum 

The REF faces significant challenges that could impact its potential benefits for Indonesia. Firstly, the economic development of Russia's Far East remains constrained by logistical and infrastructure limitations. The region's sparse population, harsh climate, and long distances from major industrial centres make it difficult to attract large-scale foreign investment.

For Indonesia, these barriers mean trade routes and supply chains may be unreliable, hindering the smooth flow of goods and investments. Secondly, geopolitical challenges add another layer of complexity. Western sanctions against Russia, imposed due to its involvement in various international conflicts, have significantly reduced the flow of Western capital into the country.

As a result, Russia has had to rely more heavily on partnerships with non-Western countries, particularly China. While China's involvement in the region brings opportunities for infrastructure development, Indonesia may find itself navigating the geopolitical tensions between major powers, especially if China's dominance in the region continues to grow. Thirdly, environmental concerns are an ongoing issue. The development of Russia's Far East carries potential environmental risks, particularly to sensitive ecosystems such as the Arctic. Indonesia, as a maritime nation with a strong emphasis on sustainable development, may face dilemmas in balancing its economic interests with environmental considerations when engaging with Russia's development projects. 

Prospects And Opportunities for Indonesia

Despite these challenges, Indonesia stands to gain significantly from participating in the REF. One of the key areas of potential cooperation is in the energy sector. Indonesia is a resource-rich country, but it faces growing energy demand, particularly in its industrial and urban sectors. The REF offers Indonesia an opportunity to secure long-term energy supplies, including natural gas and oil, from Russia's Far East. Russian energy firms, eager to diversify their export markets away from Europe, are increasingly looking to Indonesia as a prime partner.

In addition to energy, Indonesia can benefit from infrastructure development. Russia's ambitious plans to develop the Northern Sea Route as a global shipping lane could enhance maritime trade between Russia and Indonesia. Increased connectivity between the two countries could lead to expanded trade in goods such as palm oil, seafood, and textiles, where Indonesia already has a competitive advantage. Technological cooperation also presents significant opportunities for Indonesia. As both countries seek to modernize their economies, the REF can serve as a platform for joint ventures in digital technology, agriculture, and renewable energy. Russia's experience in advanced technology, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, could provide valuable knowledge transfers to Indonesia, helping the country accelerate its digital transformation.

Indonesia's Role in Regional Integration 

Beyond its direct economic gains, Indonesia's participation in the REF can strengthen its role as a key player in Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region. Indonesia has long championed regional integration frameworks like ASEAN, and its engagement with the REF could influence its regional economic and security discussions. By positioning itself as a bridge between Russia and Southeast Asia, Indonesia can enhance its diplomatic standing and negotiate better terms in trade and energy deals.

Furthermore, Indonesia's leadership role within ASEAN could be leveraged to facilitate broader ASEAN-Russia cooperation through the REF. As ASEAN seeks to balance its relationships with global powers such as the US, China, and Russia, Indonesia's participation in the REF can serve as a model for other ASEAN members looking to diversify their economic partnerships. This would not only benefit Indonesia but also contribute to the overall stability and prosperity of the region.

Recommendations to Maximize Its Gains from the REF 

Indonesia should adopt a proactive strategy that addresses both the opportunities and challenges of this partnership. The following recommendations outline key steps for Indonesia:

1. Energy Cooperation: Indonesia should prioritise long-term energy deals with Russia, securing stable and diversified energy supplies to meet its growing domestic demand. Collaborating on joint energy projects, including renewable energy, could reduce dependence on traditional energy sources.

2. Infrastructure Investments: Indonesia should explore partnerships with Russia in infrastructure development, particularly in the maritime and logistics sectors. Improved trade routes, particularly through the Northern Sea Route, could enhance Indonesia's global trade position.

3. Technological Collaboration: Indonesia should strengthen its focus on technological exchanges with Russia, particularly in digital innovation, and cybersecurity, and accelerate its domestic modernization efforts.

4. Environmental Considerations: While pursuing economic opportunities, Indonesia should advocate for sustainable development in Russia's Far East, ensuring that environmental risks are minimized. 

Conclusion

The Russia East Asia Forum offers Indonesia substantial economic and strategic opportunities, particularly in the areas of energy, trade, and technology. Despite the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, infrastructural limitations, and environmental concerns, Indonesia's participation in the REF can yield long-term benefits that align with its national development goals. By pursuing proactive and strategic partnerships within the REF framework, Indonesia can strengthen its role as a key player in the Asia-Pacific region and enhance its global economic standing.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own.

References

• Blank, Stephen. Russia’s Far East Strategy and Its Impact on Asia. The Jamestown Foundation, 2022.
• Hill, Fiona. The Russia-ASEAN Economic Partnership: Opportunities and Obstacles. Brookings Institution, 2023.
• Smith, Daniel. Russia’s Turn to the East: Prospects and Challenges in Asia. Carnegie Moscow Center, 2023.