Game thread CXLIII - Royals vs Twins

Can KC continue a fresh winning streak from the ashes of their worst losing streak of the season?

There’s not getting around the brutal seven-game losing streak that likely took the Royals’ out of competition for the division championship, but beating the Twins tonight would fully establish a new winning streak (generally considered to be at least three games or longer) and ensure a series victory over the Twins. It would also even more fully cement their status as playoff participants.

The Royals will send Alec Marsh to the mound tonight. Marsh was a solid number five starter at the beginning of the season but was struggling a bit before the team acquired Michael Lorenzen, with the rosters expanding and Lorenzen’s injury, Marsh rejoined the rotation.

Marsh hasn’t been great since his return, and has struggled mightily by giving up three home runs across his two starts - including one as the 28th man in Cleveland for that doubleheader. However, he hasn’t walked anyone and he hasn’t allowed games to get out of control and that allowed the Royals to split the two starts. He did start one game against the Twins in Minnesota at the end of May where he gave up five runs in seven innings, including another pair of dingers. The Royals got to the Twins’ bullpen in that one and almost made a comeback but couldn’t quite finish it.

The Twins will be starting Bailey Ober. Ober has been pretty good for Minnesota this year and a generally solid-to-above-average starter in his career for them. However, one team he has never been able to figure out is the Kansas City Royals. For example, he’s made two starts against them this year and they are two of his three worst starts on the season. In his season debut, he couldn’t escape the second inning and gave up eight runs in the Royals’ first victory of the season. The game after Marsh’s in May, he allowed six runs in five innings to give the Royals their only victory in that series as well. Over his career, he has made nine starts against KC and won none of them. He has a 7.71 ERA against them and, interestingly, he seems to fair worse against them with every season.

If the Royals had an easy win in the schedule for this weekend, tonight’s game was probably it. But they won last night, too, behind a terrific start from Cole Ragans. Nothing is ever guaranteed in baseball, but the Royals should win tonight on paper. Let’s hope they follow the script.

Lineups

Interestingly, a night after returning from an injury and providing perhaps the biggest hit of the night with a two-RBI single to give the Royals some real breathing room in the game, Hunter Renfroe will start tonight’s game on the bench. Robbie Grossman will get his second start, at DH tonight, batting ninth. You never want to see your DH batting ninth, but it is what it is.

The Twins are still suffering without Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Willi Castro in their lineup but Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda are still dangerous hitters in their own right. Wallner, Larnach, and Jeffers certainly aren’t awful. Also, where the heck was this version of Carlos Santana when he played for the Royals? That makes six above-average hitters by wRC+. With three other guys out! No wonder the Twins have been so good this year.