Uzbekistan’s Increasingly Influential First Daughter Seen As Successor To President Mirziyoev

(RFE/RL) — Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev amended the country’s constitution last year to pave the way for him to potentially stay in power for another 14 years.

Critics say the authoritarian Mirziyoev may be planning to keep the presidency in the family for decades, grooming his 39-year-old daughter, Saida Mirziyoeva, as a possible successor.

Mirziyoeva, the eldest of three children, joined the government in April 2019 as the deputy head of the Agency for Information and Mass Communications, a position that also automatically made her a deputy presidential adviser.

Despite no prior experience in politics, Mirziyoeva rapidly rose through the ranks: In 2023, she was appointed the first assistance to the president, the second-highest position in the presidential administration after the head of state.

“It’s been a meteoric career rise for Mirziyoeva,” says independent Uzbek journalist Jahongir Muhammad. ‘A literally unknown person got the second-highest post in Uzbekistan out of the blue.”

Mirziyoeva has become one of the most visible politicians in Uzbekistan, frequently attending official meetings, greeting foreign dignitaries, touring the country’s regions, and making diplomatic visits abroad.

In a foreign trip last month, Mirziyoyeva visited neighboring Kazakhstan where she held an official meeting with President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev — ahead of the arrival of her father.

Experts say Mirziyoeva’s rising profile not only means the Uzbek president is increasingly relying on his family to run the country but also signals he is preparing his offspring for the top job.

Keeping the presidency in the family could provide a security guarantee for members of Mirziyoev’s clan, many of whom have amassed vast fortunes since he took office in 2016. In the absence of democracy in Uzbekistan, the president’s power is unchecked.

Uzbek political experts say Mirziyoev is likely to follow the example of the first family in neighboring Turkmenistan, where strongman leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov handed over the presidency to his son, Serdar, in a managed election in 2022.

Prior to taking office, Serdar Berdymukhammedov held several high-ranking government positions.

“Uzbekistan is a dictatorship where the government is being run by the first family, who control everything,” said Alisher Taksanov, a former Uzbek diplomat.

“Almost all of Mirziyoev’s relatives are in power — either in ministries or other state agencies. The family also control the security services and businesses,” the Switzerland-based Taksanov added.

Mirziyoev — who styled himself as a reformer — has opened up the isolated Central Asian country, improved ties with its neighbors, released many political prisoners, and ended the notorious child labor in the cotton industry.

However, he did not deliver true democratic reforms. There is no official political opposition or independent media in Uzbekistan, which with 37 million people is the most populous in Central Asia. The government also brutally crushes free speech and dissent.

Taksanov predicts that under Uzbekistan’s current conditions a transfer of political power from father to daughter could take place without any real opposition or public outcry.

“Mirzioyev will announce: ‘I have prepared a successor for you,’ and the people will accept everything and vote for it as usual,” the former diplomat said.

Nadezhda Ataeva, head of the Paris-based Association of Human Rights In Central Asia, said Mirzioyeva’s government work is a rehearsal for her taking the reigns of the presidency.

“Recent videos indicate that Mirziyoeva is quite comfortable in the public arena. Her service in official positions increasingly resembles an internship before a career leap,” Ataeva said. “Mirziyoeva commands much more power than was afforded her predecessors or any other official in the presidential administration.”

‘Another Contender’

But not everyone believes Mirziyoeva’s path to succeed her father would be as smooth as predicted.

According to Alisher Ilhomov, head of the London-based research center Central Asia Due Diligence, there is another powerful contender for the presidency within the first family: Otabek Umarov, the president’s trusted personal bodyguard who also happens to be married to his younger daughter, Shahnoza.

The deputy head of the president’s State Security Service, Umarov “has his own levers of influence, is close to the president, and accompanies him on trips and events,” Ilhomov said.

RFE/RL investigations indicate Umarov, 40, has accumulated enormous wealth through his family ties and is also widely seen as a behind-the-scenes power broker among the country’s political and economic elites.

Ilhomov said Umarov “acts more as a personal bodyguard than as an official who manages the entire presidential Security Service…[and holds] a very influential position” [with great access to the president].”

He added that there is a “certain rivalry” between Umarov and Mirziyoeva. Two separate sources with knowledge of the situation spoke to RFE/RL about what they described as a conflict between Umarov and Komil Allamjonov, a close associate of Mirziyoeva.

One of the sources claimed Umarov suspected Allamjonov was behind the exposure of an “unofficial office” that put pressure on businesses and officials working on Umarov’s behalf.

Uzbek authorities did not respond to RFE/RL’s requests for comment.

Security Service’s Role

Any transfer of power in Uzbekistan must have the backing of the powerful security service, Ilhomov and other experts say.

Mirziyoeva can currently count on the support of her father-in-law, Botir Tursunov, who is the deputy chairman of the State Security Service, Ilhomov said. But he does not rule out Umarov making a move to the security service in the future, effectively becoming a “kingmaker.”

“In such a scenario, Umarov would have more chances to become president, unless Mirziyoeva manages to install her own person [in the security service] since Tursunov is getting old,” the analyst said.

The first family have never publicly hinted at any succession plans or rivalry and continue to present a united front.

In the meantime, as Mirzioyeva’s public profile continues to rise, Uzbeks draw a parallel to former first daughter Gulnara Karimova, whose involvement in massive corruption led to a falling out with her father, late President Islam Karimov.

Karimova, who was once seen as a possible heir to her father, is currently serving a prison sentence on money laundering, extortion, and other crimes. She had reportedly accumulated more than $1 billion and held a vast portfolio of real estate abroad through illegal business practices.

Taksanov claims some of Karimova’s illicitly gained assets “have quietly passed to the ownership of the Mirziyoev family” in recent years.