UFC Vegas 97 predictions
Gilbert Burns and Jessica Andrade are two of the toughest gatekeepers in the business. They have their work cut out for them on Saturday.
In the main event of UFC Vegas 97, Burns looks to snap the first losing streak of his career when he takes on the highly touted Sean Brady. The welterweight veteran’s past two losses have been to a surging Jack Della Maddalena and future champion Belal Muhammad, results that are nothing to be ashamed of, though they could be indicative of where the 38-year-old Brazilian stands in the current pecking order.
It’s an order that Brady needs to disrupt further if he’s to truly reach his potential. The Philadelphia native has all the tools to be a champion and he reminded everyone just how good he can be with a drubbing of Kelvin Gastelum this past December. The top-5 of the division awaits him if he can get past Burns.
A similar narrative plays out in the co-main event as the white hot (ironically) “Natty Ice” gets her crack at Andrade. Natalia Silva is yet to lose in five UFC appearances and her crowd-pleasing style has her marked as a surefire title challenger. All she has to do tonight is beat the winningest woman in UFC history and one of the most accomplished finishers in any weight class.
In other main card action, Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson put dueling win streaks on the line, Matt Schnell takes on short-notice opponent Cody Durden, and Trevor Peek throws down with Yanal Ashmouz in the lightweight opener.
What: UFC Vegas 97
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Sept. 7. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and the MMA Fighting Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Gilbert Burns (6) vs. Sean Brady (9)
I’m a firm believer that the Sean Brady who trucked Kelvin Gastelum is a truer reflection of his talents than the fighter that was humbled by Belal Muhammad. Besides, it turns out that ol’ Belal is really good!
Brady is an excellent all-rounder and, if anything, he needed that loss to Muhammad to show him how much farther he has to go to be considered an elite welterweight. Getting matched up with Gilbert Burns is throwing him right back into the fire, but he’s ready for it; frankly, if he isn’t now, he might never be.
Counting out Burns’ chances of upsetting Brady here doesn’t feel great, especially since I’m basing that decision more on Burns’ age (he turned 38 in July) and career wear-and-tear than any significant drop off in his performance. Don’t forget, he was up on two of the judges’ scorecards against Jack Della Maddalena before falling to the considerably younger fighter’s athleticism and power.
Brady can match Burns on the ground, he should have the speed advantage on the feet, and the difference in mileage between the two should be the difference in the championship rounds. After being pushed to the limit, Brady edges out a decision and takes his rightful place near the top of the welterweight ladder.
Pick: Brady
Jessica Andrade (14, P4P-14) vs. Natalia Silva (10)
Question: Will we see the Jessica Andrade that was good enough to win the UFC strawweight title once upon a time or the defensively suspect slugger that was finished in three straight fights not too long ago?
It might not matter given the rapid ascent of Natalia Silva, a standup menace who has already proven herself against stiff competition, including Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and Jasmine Jasudavicius. She’ll have to have a ton of respect for Andrade’s power, given the list of bodies that “Bate Estaca” has left on the mat over the years.
Andrade could look to take this to the ground given that Silva is unproven there, but Silva projects as an elite sprawl-and-brawler. As long as she keeps this standing, I give her the edge.
Another question worth asking: Can Silva finish Andrade? It’s been a long time since Andrade has lost on the cards, but I think Silva is going to have to outlast the former UFC champion in this one.
Pick: Silva
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson
Finger of shame to my fellow Canadian for missing weight!
As we continue to wag our collective finger, let us also appreciate what Kyle Nelson has done in his past three fights, beating favored opposition in each one and even taking out Bill Algeo in under five minutes. He’s on a genuine roll that no one would have predicted when he was mired in a slump of just one win in six fights.
The blessings of the Great White North can only take you so far though and I think the good times come to an end Saturday when he runs into Steve Garcia. “Mean Machine” is a flat-out finishing machine and he thrives on chaos. He’ll draw Nelson into a dogfight whether he wants it or not and in that scenario, Garcia has more than enough bite to chomp down on another victory.
Nelson will hang in there for a round before Garcia turns up the heat in the second and smokes him.
Pick: Garcia
Matt Schnell vs. Cody Durden
Alessandro Costa was a popular choice to beat Matt Schnell inside the distance, but I don’t know what to think now with Cody Durden replacing Costa on less than a week’s notice.
Tip your cap to Durden’s team, this was a sly business move. Durden is eager to snap a two-fight skid and he must see the similarly slumping Schnell as an easy target. Schnell has a ton of skill and heart, but he’s never been known for his durability and Durden is undoubtedly looking to capitalize on that weakness.
Schnell is no stranger to fighting from behind, it might just be too much to ask him do so again at this stage of his career. He’ll have the benefit of a full camp, as well as the fact that Durden hasn’t exactly been a consistent finisher in the UFC. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Schnell catches an overaggressive Durden in a submission.
I lean towards Durden relying on his wrestling to control Schnell and stifle his offense, burying him with pressure in Round 1 and finishing in the opening five minutes.
Pick: Durden
Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz
Trevor Peek and Yanal Ashmouz both found themselves facing more technical opponents in their most recent fights and who asked for that? Credit to the matchmakers for course correcting and just throwing these two maniacs in the cage with each other.
I don’t want to see either of these dudes flashing their technical acumen, showing how they can perfectly control range to land teeps or how they use feints to set up fundamental 1-2 combinations. I want to see lightweight swangin’ and bangin’! Do the right thing, fellas. Go in there and just let it rip. And if I see one takedown, I will be very, very, very disappointed.
As far as a pick goes, do we ride with the unpredictable Peek and his penchant for fast finishes, or will Ashmouz eventually figure out Peek’s timing and find an opening for a decisive strike? One thing I’m confident about is that one of these fighters will be finished for the first time.
Ashmouz by knockout.
Pick: Ashmouz
Preliminaries
Chris Padilla def. Rongzhu
Isaac Dulgarian def. Brendon Marotte
Felipe dos Santos def. Andre Lima
Gabriel Santos def. Yizha
Jaqueline Amorim def. Vanessa Demopoulos