Magic No More: Mariners at Cardinals Series Preview
The Mariners head to St. Louis to face the Cardinals.
The Mariners managed to salvage a series split in Oakland after suffering two ugly walk-off losses to start the week. Somehow, they managed to gain a game and a half on the Astros with those two victories and now sit 4.5 games back in the division and five games back in the Wild Card. Seattle will wrap up this long road trip with their first trip to St. Louis since 2013. Matt Carpenter was on that Cardinals roster more than a decade ago and he’s still active on St. Louis’s roster this season.
Last year, the Cardinals record fell below .500 for the first time since 2007 and it’s possible they’ll have a losing record in consecutive seasons for the first time since the mid-90s. Their long stretch of success was fueled by an impressive record of development and savvy roster management. Unfortunately, their current roster is stuck in the awkward place of being too old with not enough young talent coming up through the farm system to help them transition to the next generation. And the devil magic that helped them turn unheralded prospects into core contributors has seemed to have worked an opposite effect on Jordan Walker, their highest regarded prospect since Albert Pujols.
While Walker has had a hard time adjusting to big league pitching, there’s some comfort knowing that he’s only 22. More encouragingly, Masyn Winn has quickly developed into an above average shortstop with fantastic defense and a league average bat. The other youngsters who were thought to be part of the next generation of Cardinals have largely disappointed: Nolan Gorman was demoted to Triple-A in mid-August and Dylan Carlson was unceremoniously traded away at the deadline. There wouldn’t be so much consternation about their prospects if Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado weren’t showing significant signs of decline, but age is quickly catching up with those two veterans.
Probable Pitchers
From a previous series preview:
For some pitchers on the fringe of major league relevance, a walkabout overseas to revamp their approach has been an effective way to turn their careers around. Erick Fedde is the latest success story. He won the KBO’s MVP and their equivalent Cy Young award in 2023 and signed a two-year pact with the White Sox this offseason. He added a sweeper to his arsenal, added a few ticks of velocity to his fastballs, and started using his changeup a bit more often. The result is a profile that looks a lot more viable and sustainable than what he was producing in Washington before his stint in Korea.
Fedde was acquired from the White Sox at the trade deadline but has largely struggled in his six starts with his new team. Across his previous two outings against the Mariners, he’s allowed four runs in 11 innings.
Kyle Gibson was one of the veteran starters St. Louis brought in this offseason in the hopes that they could quickly turn their pitching staff around. He’s lived up to his end of the bargain, providing league average innings across 26 starts this year. At this point in his career, he’s an extremely known quantity. His fastballs aren’t great, but he can command both of them well, his sweeper is his one true swing-and-miss pitch, and his changeup keeps left-handed batters honest.
Another innings-eating veteran starter, Miles Mikolas has enjoyed some on-again, off-again success this year. His profile is so dependent on the command of his entire repertoire that he can go through stretches where he can locate with pinpoint accuracy. He’s got the lowest walk rate of any qualified starter in the NL this year and his strikeout rate has ticked up a bit after it dropped significantly last season. Still, his ERA is more than a full run higher than his FIP thanks to some trouble holding runners when they get on.
The Big Picture:
The Astros were swept by the Reds this week, providing an opening for the Mariners to make some headway in the standings. Houston returns home to face the red hot Diamondbacks this weekend. In the Wild Card race, the M’s surpassed the Red Sox after Boston was swept by the Mets. The Tigers also lost their series to the Padres this week, putting them in a virtual tie with Seattle in the standings. With the Twins sitting a half game ahead of the Royals in the standings, those two AL Central rivals will face each other this weekend.