An Evaluation of the NL Wild Card Race

There’s nothing quite like meaningful September baseball.

The National League Wild Card race is gearing up for an exciting finish that is going to see a deserving team miss out on their chance to play in October. The Mets, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have all made it to this point after going through their fair share of trials and tribulations, and it’ll all come to a head in the coming weeks.

With that, let’s take a look at how each team within that group shapes out.

 

New York Mets (76-64, –)

The Mets have been on some sort of rollercoaster ride this season. After finding themselves 11 games below .500 on June 2, they went 16-6 to close out the month and climbed right back into postseason contention. A 17-10 July kept the good times rolling and put them in position to be buyers at the trade deadline, though August was a bit more volatile for New York.

The Mets went 2-7 against a trio of AL West foes in the Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics over the first half of the month, which moved them two games back of the final Wild Card spot with a 62-59 record on Aug. 15. They recovered with back-to-back series wins over the Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles at home before embarking on a momentous 10-game road trip that included stops in San Diego and Arizona.

There, New York would split a four-game series with the Padres and take two out of three from the Diamondbacks, though it fell four games behind the Braves amidst their hot streak. The Mets made up lost ground in an instant, however, as they broke off a seven-game win streak against the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox that is still ongoing. They now find themselves in a tie with Atlanta for the final spot while carrying substantial momentum into their series with the Cincinnati Reds this weekend.

Baseball Reference currently gives the Mets a 48.1% chance of reaching the postseason while FanGraphs’ odds are at 45.9%. Their biggest advantage at this stage is that they own tiebreakers over both San Diego (3 GB) and Arizona (2 1/2 GB) while remaining tied 5-5 in the season series against the Braves with one meeting left between the two sides at the end of September.

After its three-game set against Cincinnati, New York will face the Blue Jays in Toronto for the first time since 2018 before battling the Philadelphia Phillies for three games on the road next week.

Atlanta Braves (76-64, –)

After winning eight of 10 against the Angels, Phillies, Washington Nationals and Minnesota Twins towards the end of August, the Braves have stumbled just a bit over their past two series. They dropped three of four on the road to the Phillies last weekend and couldn’t close out a three-game sweep against the Colorado Rockies at home on Thursday, moving them into a tie with the Mets for the final Wild Card spot after holding a four-game lead over them as recently as last Wednesday.

Atlanta has battled through poor injury luck this year, losing Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. for the season during the opening months while the likes of Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and A.J. Minter have, or will, endure long-term absences as well.

The Braves’ starting rotation, led by Cy Young favorite Chris Sale, has largely kept the team afloat and is the primary reason why the club remains in a strong position to reach the postseason for the seventh-consecutive season. Baseball Reference currently gives Atlanta a 54.9% chance to make it to October while FanGraphs is more bullish at 67.9%.

They will take on the Blue Jays in a three-game set at home this weekend before playing a makeup game against the Reds on Monday and jetting off for Washington to face the Nationals on Tuesday and Wednesday. Atlanta will close next week out at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Arizona Diamondbacks (79-62, +2.5)

The Diamondbacks lit the baseball world on fire in August. They finished the month with an 18-9 record and extended their lead over the Mets to seven games on Aug. 28 after Corbin Carroll’s eight-inning grand slam off of Edwin Díaz in a comeback victory.

Since then, however, it hasn’t been quite as smooth-sailing. Arizona dropped the final game of its three-game series against New York before losing three of four at home to the Dodgers, effectively ending their hopes of winning the NL West for the first time in over a decade (2011). The D-backs bounced back with a series victory over the San Francisco Giants this week, though the pressure is squarely on them now that both the Braves and Mets are within striking distance. Their playoffs odds come in at 91.3% on Baseball Reference and 87.7% on FanGraphs.

Arizona travels to Houston this weekend for a three-game series with the Astros before returning home and matching up with the Texas Rangers and Milwaukee Brewers next week.

San Diego Padres (80-62, +3.0)

There are plenty of parallels to be drawn between the D-backs and the Padres. Much like its divisional counterparts, San Diego burst onto the scene in August with an 18-10 record that left it four games up on the Mets and tied for the top Wild Card spot with Arizona entering September.

The Padres have gone 6-4 against the St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers since splitting a four-game set with New York. They now sit a half-game up on the D-backs and are three above both the Braves and Mets. As expected because of its place in the standings, San Diego owns the most favorable postseason odds of the bunch with 95.8% on Baseball Reference and 95.1% on FanGraphs.

After suffering a sweep-spoiling loss of the heartbreaking variety to Detroit on Thursday night, the Padres will stay home and face San Francisco this weekend before hitting the road next week to play the Mariners and the Giants once again.

Honorable Mention

I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the Chicago Cubs within this equation, who have a 72-68 record and are four games back of the Mets and Braves. They had a six-game win streak snapped by the Pittsburgh Pirates earlier this week and have clawed their way back from being nine games under .500 in July to at least give themselves a puncher’s chance in this race. The Cubs now have to face the New York Yankees and Dodgers in consecutive series, and they’ll likely need to go 5-1 or 4-2 at the very least to keep themselves alive.

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