Tigers in mirror are closer than they appear

Tyger Tyger burning bright, in the forests of the night...

On September 5, 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals sat eight-and-a-half games back of what was then the only Wild Card.

They then tore through the rest of September, winning on the final day of the season to secure the Wild Card by one game over the Braves.

In the playoffs, St. Louis, winners of 90 games, upended the 102-win Phillies in five games*, defeated the 96-win Brewers in six games to claim the pennant, and won an exhilarating seven-game series against the 96-win Texas Rangers to claim the organization’s 11th World Series Championship.

*Earlier in the evening, before their Game Five victory, I got engaged.

The Cardinals, of course, needed some help to make it into the playoffs. After losing the night of September 5th against the Brewers, the team had long odds of catching the Atlanta Braves, the team holding the Wild Card spot.

Atlanta unwillingly obliged.

For the entire month of September, the Cardinals went 18-8.

The Braves went 9-18.

To paraphrase my four-year-old, who is now fond of quoting Samuel L. Jackson’s character* from Jurassic Park:

Hold on to your butts, Royals fans. The Detroit Tigers are coming.

*Could be worse.

I’ll admit, it’s funny to write this right after the Royals broke their seven-game losing streak as the Tigers blew a lead against the Padres, but I still believe the Royals will have their hands full keeping at bay their intradivisional rival than, saying, staying ahead of the Red Sox.

The biggest reason? The schedule.

The rest of the way, the Tigers, 70-70, have one of the easiest schedules in all of baseball, including:

• Three games in Oakland, 61-79.
• Three games versus Colorado, 51-89.
• Three games versus the Chicago White Sox, 32-109.

Also mixed in there: from September 16 through 18, three games against Your Kansas City Royals. They also have three in Baltimore and three hosting the Rays.

Meanwhile, the Royals are still in the midst of their toughest stretch of the season. The Royals clearly had a back-loaded schedule while the Tigers had the opposite.

By record, six of the Royals nine easiest remaining games come on the road.

• Three games in Pittsburgh, 65-74.
• Three games versus San Francisco, 68-72.
• Three games in Da Capital, 62-77.

And, of course, three versus the Twins, three in the Bronx, three home against the Tigers, and, to end the year, three in Atlanta.

One of those schedules is easier than the other.

Should Royals fans be worried?

I believe the Royals will make the postseason. Even one of my best and oldest friends, who is super pessimistic about every team for whom he roots (even the Chiefs!), believes the Royals will sneak into October.

I’ve never kept this a secret but I’m also a Cardinals fan. Back in 2011, I didn’t really pay attention to the Cardinals creeping up on the Braves until about the last week of the season. Very clearly, I remember that epic last day of the season, where so many things happened, not just my Redbirds sneaking into the playoffs.

The roles are now reversed. While I believe the Royals will make it, I am worried about the Tigers. As noted, Detroit has a much easier remaining schedule. But also:

The Royals bullpen acts like Dr. Jekel and Mr. Hide*—one never knows what the ‘pen’s going to do in any given game. Lucas Erceg, in his return from the worst play ever, looked good last night, but that means absolutely squat for Friday night against the Twins.

*The correct spellings. Bobby Louis, Son of Steven, got it wrong. I will not be taking questions.

The Royals lineup, despite exploding for [checks notes] four runs in Wednesday’s losing-streak snapper, doesn’t exactly exude confidence right now. Three of those four runs came on one swing of the bat, which is nice, but outside of that Tommy Pham blast, the Royals strung together just one solitary run.

Meanwhile, Detroit went 17-11 in August while outscoring opponents by 25 runs. Riley Greene, only 23, is blossoming into a solid contributor as he’s slashing .256/.350/.478 for an team-leading OPS of .828, 32% above league average. The Tigers drafted Greene in 2019, three picks after the Royals landed Bobby Witt Jr. When it’s all said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Greene is the third most valuable player from the draft behind Bob and Adley Rutschman (though Corbin Carroll will have something to say about that).

Southpaw Tarik Skubal fronts a solid rotation and may very well end up winning this year’s Cy Young*. He should be the favorite as he’s currently leading the AL in a slew of pitching categories, including (ahem) wins, ERA, strikeouts, bWAR, and fWAR. At only 27, he should provide valuable innings to the Tigers for years to come.

*Predicted by only one Royals Review writer, might I add.

And for some addition by subtraction, Javier Baez is done for the season.

At the deadline, the Tigers shipped off right-handed starting pitcher Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers in a move that may very well come back to bite them. Flaherty, who’d signed a one-year deal with Detroit in the offseason, had been pitching very well, but with the Tigers so far back at the time, they moved him. He’s pitched about the same for the Dodgers, which, again, isn’t bad at all. Detroit could use that.

Back to the main question: should Royals fans be worried about the Tigers catching up?

Right now, FanGraphs gives the Royals an 85.1% chance to make the playoffs with the Tigers getting only a 5.3% chance. One of those is better than the other.

Which is great! That’s wonderful! That doesn’t ease my worry. Those damn 2011 Cardinals and Braves just won’t get out of my head.

Hopefully, I won’t be as worried about the Tigers when the two teams meet in about ten days.

But with how well Detroit’s playing versus how poorly the Royals have played, I’m guessing I won’t feel good about the Royals’ playoff chances until after their game in Atlanta on September 29.