Twins series preview: A wild battle
The Royals and Twins are jostling for position in the Wild Card race
The Twins have made the post-season ten times in the last twenty years, but have just one series win to show for it. They’ll try for a deeper run this year, and currently find themselves in position for the second Wild Card spot, with the Royals breathing down their neck, just a half-game back.
Minnesota Twins (76-64) vs. Kansas City Royals (76-65) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Twins: 4.76 runs scored/game (8th in MLB), 4.42 runs allowed/game (18th)
Royals: 4.75 runs scored/game (10th), 4.13 runs allowed/game (8th)
The Twins have been in a bit of a slump lately, dropping 9 of their last 15 games. They have handled the Royals well all season, taking 7 of 10 from the season series. Overall they haven’t played good teams well though, going 37-48 against teams with a .500 record or better.
Only eight teams have hit more home runs than the Twins, but they are missing some firepower with Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Manuel Margot all out with injury. Royce Lewis has been slumping lately with a .214/.217/.321 line in his last 16 games. Matt Wallner is a .258/.368/.596 hitter on the road this year. All-Star Willi Castro is hitting just .167/.281/.259 over his last 16 games. Catcher Ryan Jeffers is hitting .270/.317/.550 against lefties this year. Former Royals first baseman Carlos Santana is nursing a wrist injury and is day-to-day.
Only two teams have stolen fewer bases than the Twins. Minnesota has the seventh-worst Defensive Runs Saved but the 11th-best Outs Above Average. Carlos Santana grades well in both metrics as a fielder, while rookie Austin Martin has been a liability.
Zebby Matthews sounds like an early 20th-century vaudeville star, but he is actually a rookie right-hander for the Twins who held the Royals to two runs in five innings for a win in his MLB debut back in August. He has yet to win a game since then, and was rocked for nine runs on ten hits in two innings in his last start against the Blue Jays. He had a 2.60 ERA with 114 strikeouts in 97 innings across three levels of minor league baseball this year. He brings a 95 mph fastball with some very hittable secondaries - a slider, cutter, change up, and curve.
Bailey Ober gave up eight runs in less than two innings back in March against the Royals, and lost to them again in May. The Royals have rocked Ober in his career - he is winless (0-4) in nine starts with a 7.71 ERA. He has a 3.56 ERA since the All-Star break, despite giving up nine runs in two innings back on August 26 against the Braves. Ober has the third-highest flyball rate among starters, and his 22 home runs allowed are tied for ninth-most in the American League.
Simeon Woods-Richardson has been a better pitcher at home with a 4.26 ERA on the road. He has the tenth-lowest strikeout rate among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched. He throws a 93 mph fastball with a changeup, curve, and a slider that has a 24.8 percent whiff rate.
Twins relievers have a 4.04 ERA, but since the All-Star break they have been awful, with a 5.10 ERA, fourth-worst in baseball. They have just 16 blown saves - fourth-fewest in baseball, but have allowed 44 percent of inherited runners to score - the most in baseball. Closer Jhoan Duran has converted 22-of-24 save opportunities. Griffin Jax leads all relievers in fWAR with 2.2 and his 33.5 percent strikeout rate is 12th-highest among relievers. Jorge Alcala has given up 11 runs in his last 11 outings for a 9.28 ERA. Lefties are hitting .234/.306/.299 against Caleb Thielbar. Former Royals reliever Scott Blewett has struck out 26.3 percent of batters he has faced.
The Twins have played .500 ball since the All-Star break, allowing the Royals to make up a few games on them, but this weekend could have a huge impact on who gets the #5 seed in the American League. The Twins own the tie-breaker, so the Royals need to get ahead of them. Minnesota is banged up with a leaky bullpen, a good recipe for the Royals to take advantage of.