The Horn Of Africa States: Misguided Investments In The Region – OpEd

The world knows that the Red Sea and hence its littoral countries on both banks, thereof, are important and form part of the critical elements for a safe maritime space with respect to international trade and its chain supplies. The countries of Arabia, except for Yemen, on the eastern bank of this body of water are financially and economically developed enough, at present, to build strong naval forces to protect their waters.

The Yemen chaos which is not much different from the African side of the Red Sea waters appears to have been created and its ability to protect its waters has been weakened by the Gulf States who launched a war against the country, destroying most of the governing infrastructures that were built over decades and centuries earlier. And the world know this too. The Gaza war has not helped either and pitches the country against all the Western countries or so it seems.

Somalia and Sudan on the African side of these waters together form the longest coast but have also been subjected to chaos and destruction over decades to ensure that they have no say on matters related to the Red Sea maritime route. Both countries suffer from weak governance, or no governance and their populations are continuously subjected to enormous pressures, where they are barely able to survive, in the place of protecting their waters from forces, unknown and unclear to this day.

Yet the world knows that the Red Sea is a significant maritime waterway, which serves not only global trade but is also a passageway for major tourist yachts, war ships and even under the sea vessels, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal and Bab El Mandab Straits. It is a major waterway for transporting fuel and energy supplies and commercial goods between Asia and Europe.

The world also knows that the region is close to the seemingly eternally conflicted zone of West Asia, which also make it a focal point for security apparatuses across the globe. Unlike the recent fake narratives publicized through the fake international media, the region did not have or know much about piracy until a few decades ago, when out of the blue, Somali piracy became a topic of discussion and dominated the headlines of news from the region.

The world knows too that the navies of major and regional powers have congregated in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, and of course, the larger Indian Ocean. Yet headlines like resurgence of piracy in the Horn of Africa seem to be showing up, as always in the fake international media, in the presence of all these international forces. One tinkling question is how this is possible when there is so much firepower in the seas of the region?

They include, among others, US, Chinese, Indian, Japanese, South Korean, German, Spanish, French, and other naval vessels. It would be a fair question, if then, one asks, why is there need for naval escort services in the waters of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean? They are already present in these waters without being asked for by the countries of the region.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), The Horn of Africa region “…has experienced a substantial increase in the number and size of foreign military deployments since 2001” (The foreign military presence in the Horn of Africa region – April 2019). This has not abated and new forces are pouring into the region.

These now include the Turks, the Egyptians, and strangely enough, even landlocked Ethiopia wants to deploy naval forces in the waters of the Red Sea, but on a wrong footing. It has stirred Somali nationalism which appeared to have taken a backseat in Somali affairs lately. This new Ethiopian adventure poses, therefore, a new threat to the region and the world.

Those powers that are investing heavily in the region for their military presence spend huge sums including land-based facilities which could consist of bases, ports, airstrips, training camps, and other logistical hubs. Obviously, it would have been much cheaper for them if they invested in the local forces of the littoral countries of the region such as Somalia, which owns the longest coast of 3,333 km in the region.

There would definitely be no pirates when there is a Somali naval presence and there would be no need for naval escorts of shipping plying the waters of the Red Sea. This has been proven in the past before 1991 and could be easily reconstituted.

Re-building the Somali navy would have several implications, which among others would include the lessening of the presence of antagonistic countries in the region such as the Gulf States who seem to have found the perfect conflicted place to practice their international diplomacy and security apparatuses in the Horn of Africa.

A revived Somali naval presence would also contribute to the peace and stability of the region more than any other factor. No Ethiopian or otherwise would think of visiting the waters of the region without adding the reactions of Somalia to their calculations. It is the gateway through which malignant forces enter the region, and which should be blocked. Only an organized Somali naval force under its federal government, would be able to thwart future interlopers of the region’s resources, both at sea and on land.

This would generally be cheaper than the misguided current policies followed by the international community in pursuing peace and stability in the region. The right investment is, indeed, those that would contribute to the reconstitution of the weakened Somali state including its navy, and strengthening it financially and economically, even through long-term loans, which will be repaid by the Somali state through its rich resources including maritime and sub-soil mineral resources.

The world knows the Somalia is only poor on the surface but rich in resources, including its geopolitical location and its white beaches which stretch for thousands of kilometers encompassing year-round warm waters. A huge blue economy, including a sizeable tourism industry, would be able to repay all the loans to the region. Adept investors who invest in the future of the country would also make good returns from the region. The African Development Bank Group says that there are three ways of investing in the region and they are, and I quote:

• Market-seeking: selling to the local market
• Efficiency-seeking: becoming more efficient in international production
• Resource-seeking: obtaining resources or assets from that country 00 {Why invest in the Horn of Africa? The AFDB Group 2024}

The African Development Bank, further says that “After analysis of the various regions of transition states in Africa, it was found that the Horn of Africa is the most attractive region for market-seeking and efficiency-seeking investors, based on the number of opportunities that it presents.”

The Bank overlooked the fact that the population of the region is soaring and currently is about 160 million people, seventy-five percent of which is under thirty years of age with long working lives ahead of them. They could, therefore, be a base for manufacturing companies, seeking reasonably priced wage levels.

It would be a winner relationship for both the region and manufacturers. On the one hand the manufacturing companies will have access to a reasonably priced large labor force, while the region would procure jobs for the burgeoning young population, who may otherwise turn to unexpected and harmful activities, including illegal migration and terrorism.

The emphasis on security apparatus and investments, thereof, in the region is not quite right and even if this was a priority, the investments should have been made on the countries of the region at a much cheaper bill than is currently the case, and which still makes the region insecure, unstable and difficult to govern.

That truly, is a misguided investment in the region, which serves neither the region’s countries nor those seeking safe passageway for global trade across the region and in particular through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea to and from the Indian Ocean.