2024 VMA predictions: Chappell Roan and Billie Eilish eye wins, and Taylor Swift not as strong as she appears

The 2024 MTV Video Music Awards are promising to be a great show, with confirmed performers like Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter, and Karol G all slated for the September 11 ceremony. But the biggest part of the show are the awards themselves, with many close races that will keep us on the edge of our seats until the envelopes are opened. Let’s review four general categories not tied to specific genres.

Best Collaboration
This category seems to be a two-horse race between Taylor Swift and Post Malone’s “Fortnight” and Jungkook and Latto’s “Seven.” The former has the advantage of Swift being the most widely known entertainer in the world. However, Jungkook is from the boy band BTS, and one thing everyone knows about BTS is that their fan base is one of the biggest and strongest in the music industry. That’s why I expect “Seven” to take the award here, especially since this is one of only two nominations Jungkook has, while Swift fans have plenty of other spots to vote for her. “Seven” would also be a great winner with its impressive special effects and cinematography.

Song of the Year
Since the VMAs have turned into the Taylor Swift awards in the past few years, one might be tempted to predict “Fortnight” here. But that’s not really one of Swift’s greatest hits, and one could argue it’s the least popular of the nominees. So I think it’ll ultimately go to Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” one of the defining pop hits of the 2020s so far. It took Carpenter from burgeoning pop act to certified superstar and has been quoted and memed to death due to its catchy lyrics. Another strong contender here could be Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em,” the country hit that amplified the presence of Black artists in the genre this year and was also a TikTok phenomenon. Last but not least, watch out for Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us,” the biggest rap hit of the year and a song bound to attract many votes its way due to the whole Drake/Lamar beef.

Best New Artist
There’s no way this doesn’t go to Chappell Roan. The viral pop singer has been on a star-making, skyrocketing journey in the past few months thanks to the ascent of her album “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” and her hit standalone single “Good Luck, Babe!” Roan has also achieved a massive fandom that will surely have her back when it comes to voting. But if it isn’t Roan, it could be Benson Boone, the pop singer-songwriter known for his ballads and his smash hit “Beautiful Things.” Boone has had a great year too, and is currently on tour with Taylor Swift, which could help him get some votes as well. Still, I’ll be shocked if it isn’t Roan.

Video for Good
This will be the place for the VMAs to award Billie Eilish after snubbing her in most other categories. Eilish is nominated for “What Was I Made For?” from the “Barbie” movie, which has turned into an awards magnet for the singer-songwriter. The track won an Oscar, took home Song of the Year at the Grammys, and was also a huge hit with audiences with over one billion Spotify streams. Plus, the track touches on issues of self-worth, especially for women, which is sure to connect with a lot of fans. If someone else were to win, it could be Tyler Childers’s buzzy “In Your Love” video, which was acclaimed for its tear-jerking queer storyline and became Childers’s biggest hit. Eilish is a safe bet here, though.