Harris edges Trump by 2 points in survey of likely voters

Vice President Harris has a 2-point lead over former President Trump in a new survey of likely voters, as the pair head toward a tight November race.

New data from Emerson College Polling shows Harris with 49 percent support to Trump’s 47 percent, with 3 percent of respondents undecided. 

At this point in the 2020 cycle, the pollster found then-candidate Joe Biden, who went on to win the race, leading Trump by the same 2-point margin. 

“The 2024 presidential race currently mirrors 2020, with the Democratic lead narrowing from four points to two in national polls,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. 

Four years ago, President Biden reestablished his 4-point lead in late September, ahead of the first presidential debate. Trump already faced off with Biden in this cycle’s first presidential debate, and a poor performance from Biden was seen as a catalyst for his historic withdrawal from the race.

With Harris now at the top of the Democratic ticket, she’s set to show down with Trump in their first debate next week.

“Now, we’ll see what impact the debate has on the trajectory of this race,” Kimball said. 

ABC News will host the debate, which is set to air at 9 p.m. ET on Sept. 10. The program will run for 90 minutes, moderated by hosts Linsey Davis and David Muir.

Trump has attacked ABC News as “the nastiest and most unfair newscaster in the business," and the campaigns squabbled over whether microphones should be muted during the debate. But both candidates have now agreed to the rules for the scheduled showdown.

Emerson College Polling also found a gender divide: Suburban men break for Trump by 17 points, while suburban women break for Harris by 18 points. 

The numbers are in line with other recent surveys showing Harris with a slight edge amid a surge of enthusiasm for her fast-tracked campaign. But other polls suggest she's not yet where she needs to be as the candidates head toward a close contest on Election Day.

The survey was conducted Sept. 3-4 among 1,000 voters and had a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3 percentage points.