John Murphy: Bills embark on a season to reset – and maybe surprise

How does 10 wins sound?

Not going into December, or with a few games left to play.

Ten wins — period. Playoffs and another AFC East title, probably.

It doesn’t sound like much but with all the changes the Bills have made, and a tough schedule to contend with, 10 wins sounds about right. And the stage is set for another Super Bowl run in 2025.

Don’t panic. A 10-7 record would be Buffalo’s worst since the team won 10 games in 2019 when the schedule was 16 games. Before that, the Bills went 19 years without winning 10. But they’re taking a step back this year so they can take big steps forward in 2025. They’re re-setting the table: clearing cap space and not giving aging veterans big contracts, letting someone else pay for past performance.

And they still have Josh Allen. As long as he continues to excel, to dare to make “impossible” throws, the Bills will be competitive. He wouldn’t have it any other way.

The Bills made their intentions clear when the traded Stefon Diggs AND agreed to pick up his $31 million dead cap hit this year. After averaging 110 catches and close to 10 touchdowns a season during his four years in Buffalo, Diggs will not be replaced. Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and whoever else don’t come near Diggs' productive output, even with his never-ending complaints about not getting the ball.

Look for Josh Allen to use his tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, more often along with getting production from James Cook in the passing game.

On defense, the Bills said goodbye to Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, the stalwarts in their secondary for seven years. Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, Cole Bishop and company have a long way to go to make the contributions Poyer and Hyde made by instinct alone. Tre’Davious White, another seven-year man, gives way to Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam mostly because of injury.

Speaking of injury, Matt Milano is on the sideline for a second straight year. Milano and former teammate Tremaine Edmunds had the Bills set up for years at linebacker. Dorian Williams and Terrel Bernard, not so much.

Small questions remain at center where Connor McGovern takes over, and at kicker. One gets the feeling Tyler Bass could be a missed field goal away from the unemployment line.

The schedule provides more questions with road games at Baltimore, Houston and Detroit and home games against conference champions Kansas City and San Francisco. I expect the Dolphins to put up a fight, the Jets less so.

But the Bills have Josh Allen. Only Patrick Mahomes in K.C. provides as much spark to his team. Allen is not overrated, a popular storyline in recent weeks. In fact, he may be ready to take a few more steps forward as he settles in Buffalo with an even greater share of responsibility for point production. They may need to score more points especially early in the season with defections and injuries to their defense.

Look for another late-season run just like last year. After playing the 49ers on Dec. 1, the Bills should win four of the final five games. That includes wins at home against New England and the Jets and on the road at the Patriots.

That’s enough for ten wins, the AFC East Crown (again), and some playoff action. By then, maybe the young Buffalo Bills will surprise us.

John Murphy, the longtime Voice of the Bills, is writing columns for WIVB.com this season. Find more of his work here.