Could ‘Only Murders in the Building’ pull off a stunning upset for Best Comedy Series at the Emmys?

“Only Murders in the Building” returned to Hulu for its fourth season on August 27, the day after Emmy voting ended, but it’s the show’s third season from last summer that the television academy is judging. Will the murder mystery claim Best Comedy Series? It’s an underdog in the race, but it’s also one of the most nominated programs of the season.

As of this writing FX’s “The Bear” is the strong front-runner to claim the title for the second year in a row. It gets leading odds of 4/1 based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Among those predicting it to win are 16 out of 17 Expert journalists, eight out of 11 Gold Derby Editors, 23 of our Top 24 Users and 23 of our All-Star Top 24. It’s the most nominated comedy of the season with 23 bids — that actually makes it the most nominated comedy ever in a single year. And any of our elite pundits not going for “The Bear” are betting on “Hacks” for the upset, not “Only Murders.”

But “Only Murders” comes into these awards with a stellar 21 nominations. That makes it the third most nominated program of the season, behind only “The Bear” and overall nominations leader “Shogun” (25 noms). And it’s the most nominations “Only Murders” has ever gotten; it received 17 in 2022 and only 11 in 2023. That huge uptick for the show includes first-time nominations for Best Comedy Actress (Selena Gomez), Best Comedy Supporting Actress (Meryl Streep) and Best Comedy Supporting Actor (Paul Rudd). And the show contends in pivotal fields like casting and editing.

The biggest challenge “Only Murders” faces is that, for the first time, it’s not nominated for writing or directing. That’s a major deficit because it has been 22 years since a show has won Best Comedy Series without being recognized in at least one of those categories. “Friends” achieved that feat in 2002. But perhaps “Only Murders” had support in those two races and simply split its own vote: the show submitted two episodes to Best Comedy Directing and two to Best Comedy Writing. Either way, expanding its nominations haul as dramatically as it did makes it too big to ignore.