Best Drama Writing Emmy odds: Can ‘Slow Horses’ overtake 2 ‘Shōgun’ episodes?
It is no secret that the writing branches adore pilots and with the 2024 Emmys lineup for Best Drama Writing, they make up half the category: “Fallout,” “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” and “Shōgun.” The last of which also has its penultimate installment, joined by two standout showcases from “Slow Horses” and “The Crown.” With an entire new slate of competition, this race may be closer than we think. Let’s take a closer look at all the submissions and the writers nominated in this category to determine who will come out on top.
1. “Shōgun” (“Crimson Sky” by Rachel Kondo & Caillin Puente) — 7/2 odds
2. “Slow Horses” (“Negotiating With Tigers” by Will Smith) — 4/1 odds
3. “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (“First Date” by Donald Glover & Francesca Sloane) — 5/1 odds
4. “Shōgun” (“Anjin” by Rachel Kondo & Justin Marks) — 11/2 odds
5. “The Crown” (“Ritz” by Peter Morgan & Meriel Sheibani-Clare) — 6/1 odds
6. “Fallout” (“The End” by Geneva Robertson-Dworet & Graham Wagner) — 7/1 odds
Just like in the directing category, “Shōgun” leads once again in the combined odds with its penultimate episode “Crimson Sky,” scripted by Caillin Puente and co-creator Rachel Kondo. Along with its careful and colorful direction, it is also a display for its writing as it has prolonged scenes and constructed conversations between characters as they make significant decisions regarding the future, culminating in the death of Mariko (Anna Sawai), tying together her childhood flashback at the beginning of the episode.
Kondo is also nominated for the show’s 70-minute pilot “Anjin” with co-creator Justin Marks, introducing the world and the three central characters of the show, particularly John Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis) and Yoshii Toranaga (Hiroyuki Sanada) as the scenes alternate between their journeys and conflicts before meeting at the episode’s final moments. This installment is not necessarily an intense nailbiter like “Crimson Sky” due to its exposition and introductory elements, which explains its fourth placement.
But closing the gap on “Crimson Sky” is the third episode of “Slow Horses” by Will Smith, who is the only sole writer in a category full of duos. “Negotiating With Tigers” is when the Slough House team learns the reasons behind the kidnapping of one of their members and work to secure the release of another one of their agents from MI5 when they discover new information about the kidnapper that has gone rogue, ending in a surprising twist and a death. Smith is a previous two-time Emmy winner as a producer for “Veep.”
The highest placing pilot in the category is “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” penned by Donald Glover and Francesca Sloane. Glover is a previous two-time Emmy winner for “Atlanta” and has received a writing bid in all three television genres in a span of seven years with “Atlanta” in 2017 for comedy and last year with “Swarm” for limited/anthology series. Despite the action genre this franchise is known for, the first installment features a number of lengthy dialogue scenes between the two leads played by Glover and Maya Erskine as the title characters as they get to know one another and portray a married couple.
Peter Morgan is a previous winner in this category for “The Crown” in 2021 for the fourth season and has been solely nominated for the preceding three seasons. This marks his first co-nomination with first-time nominee Meriel Sheibani-Clare for the final season’s standout episode “Ritz,” beginning with a flashback and putting a bow on the relationship between Queen Elizabeth II (Imelda Staunton) and Princess Margaret (Lesley Manville) as the latter nears the end of her life. It currently is in fifth behind “Anjin.”
Finally, there is the “Fallout” pilot by Geneva Robertson-Dworet and Graham Wagner, the only show that does not have a corresponding directing nomination, perhaps a factor in its last placement. “The End” introduces the moments before the nuclear war of 2077, resulting in a famous actor turning into a ghoul and bounty hunter (Walton Goggins). The 74-minute episode focuses 219 years later when he, as well as a separate unknown squire (Aaron Moten), pursues an escaped scientist. Meanwhile, a young woman (Ella Purnell) rebels against her colony regulations and takes risks to find her father after he gets kidnapped by raiders.
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