Election 2024 will all come down to turnout — here’s what you need to know 

With just over two months until Election Day, both the Trump-Vance ticket and the Harris-Walz ticket are in full campaign mode. Since President Biden stepped aside in July to let Harris take the nomination, everything that could go wrong for Trump has come to pass.  

But not all is lost for the GOP. Polling numbers still show what could be a close race, particularly in battleground states.

Still, the underlying trend toward Democrats in several of these states is indisputable, suggesting that the race for the White House may not be as close as it appears. 

In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Witmer (D) won her reelection in 2022 by over 10 points, which was 1 point more than her victory in 2018. Both senators in the state are Democrats. However, Gary Peters won reelection in 2020 by under 2 points. Classifying Michigan as a battleground likely overstates the support for Trump; pencil Michigan in for Harris, provided voters around the Detroit area show up to overcome the majority of the rest of the state. 

In Pennsylvania, the same situation exists. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) won election in 2022 by 14 points. Both senators are currently Democrats. In 2022, John Fetterman defeated Mehmet Oz by just under 5 points, suggesting overall support enjoyed by Democrats in the state. What will make this race close is turnout, though with all voters motivated to show up, the tailwinds are certainly in Harris’s favor. 

Wisconsin provides a more nuanced situation. They have a Democratic governor, Tony Evers, who won in 2022 by 3 points. They also have a senator from each party, with Democrat Tammy Baldwin seeking reelection this year and currently holding a comfortable lead in the polls. On the other hand, Ron Johnson, the Republican senator, has been elected for three terms, with his margin of victory shrinking each time.  

Wisconsin represents the epitome of a battleground state. Much like Pennsylvania, how voters show up will be critical to determine who wins its 10 electoral college votes. However, Harris will still hold an edge, given how the state partisan trajectory has been moving in recent years. 

Arizona is an enigma. They have a Democratic governor, one Democratic senator and one independent senator, Krysten Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat but reregistered as an independent in late-2022. However, Arizona has a history of supporting Republicans for president, though their trajectory is now favoring Democrats. The margin of victory in Arizona will also be razor-thin, so who shows up to vote will be critical. 

Nevada is similar to Arizona, except that it has a Republican governor and two Democratic senators. They have, however, supported the Democratic nominee in the last four presidential elections. Like Arizona, the margin of victory will also be razor-thin. 

Then there is North Carolina, which at one time looked like a GOP lock (and, historically, has been). With Biden’s departure, it now looks like a toss-up. It does have two Republican senators (elected in 2020 and 2022), but a Democratic governor, Roy Cooper (elected in 2020 by a four-point margin). The governor’s mansion is up for reelection in 2024, with Democrat Josh Stein polling well ahead of Republican Mark Robinson. History suggests that Trump will prevail here, so turn-out on Election Day will be key. 

Though any one of these states can break for either party, voters in geographical areas tend to move in clumps. This was seen in 2016, when Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania (the upper Midwest), and proceeded to lose them in 2020. If the same “group vote” occurs in 2024, the winner of this cluster will likely also win the White House. 

To add further headwinds to Trump’s election, Minnesota has become a Harris lock with Gov. Tim Walz her running mate. This will give extra energy for her to win upper Midwest neighbors as well. 

What this analysis suggests is that several states will likely be close, in terms of their popular vote for each candidate. However, if they all move together and support the same candidate, the edge today rests with Harris.  

This may be why Trump is reticent to debate Harris. As a prosecutor attorney, Harris has the skills to befuddle Trump in a debate, which means he has much to lose and little to gain in such an event.  

With the odds having significantly softened for Trump since Harris's accession, Republican leadership would be wise to focus on retaining the House and taking back the Senate. Given that Montana is well within their grasp, they hold the edge in making this gain in the upper chamber. 

The House is also well within their range. Of the 435 House Seats, 70 are considered competitive, with just 22 of these rated as toss-ups. This is a byproduct of effective gerrymandering by both parties, giving voters limited competitive choices. It is in these 70 competitive races (and 22 toss-up districts) that will determine control of the House, which is why both parties must continue to keep their feet on the gas to get their supporters to cast their ballots. 

Yes, the 2024 election will be close, but far more for the House and, to some degree, the Senate. Smart GOP attention is being placed in these races. 

What this means is that the country may be on track for a divided government, with the two parties holding different parts of government. Since 1981, just six of the 22 sessions of Congresses have had the same party controlling the House, the Senate and the White House, which makes a divided government the most common situation in Washington. If anything meaningful is to be accomplished, compromise is necessary. For the 119th Congress, this will likely impact issues like the federal budget, addressing raising the debt ceiling, and confirming Supreme Court nominees, to name just a few.  

As Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve who served under four presidents, said, “Unless you are willing to compromise, society cannot live together.” All candidates and voters should heed such advice as Election Day approaches. 

Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.