Cubs peaking at the right time this September

Last year on Sept. 2, the Cubs had a 59.5% chance of clinching a wild-card spot and a 69.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. They went 12-16 in September and choked it away.

This year, after an 18-8 August with a plus-46 run differential, they entered September healthy and playing their best ball of the season — a 5-3 loss to the Pirates at home Monday night notwithstanding.

“We’ve talked about offense all day, [but] I would talk about the defense a lot on this road trip,” manager Craig Counsell said of the visit to Miami, Pittsburgh and Washington in which the Cubs won eight of nine games and had back-to-back sweeps for the first time since 2022. “I would talk about the baserunning a lot on this road trip. We played well in a lot of areas, and that’s been a part of winning as well.”

Counsell brought up third baseman Isaac Paredes’ diving stop Sunday with the bases loaded and no outs in the second inning of a 14-1 win over the Nationals.

When the Cubs left for the trip, they had a 2.9% chance of making the playoffs. Entering Monday, that had risen to 6.7%.

“A baseball season is a marathon, and it has to breathe — you don’t always get to pick,” Counsell said. “We’ve hit a good stretch right now. We’ve got our work cut out for us, but [we’re] certainly playing at a pretty high level right now in all phases.”

Pearson’s adjustments

Right-handed reliever Nate Pearson’s problem hasn’t been talent or velocity. It’s that his fastball — in the 95th percentile for velocity — is getting hit consistently, with opponents slashing .300/.386/.509 against it. Before he was traded from the Blue Jays in late July, Pearson struggled in particular against lefties.

Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy wanted to implement a change on Pearson’s second day with the organization. He moved his setup over on the rubber, then had a 1.93 ERA in August over 14 innings.

“It’s helped my stuff out mechanically and [with] overall pitch shapes,” Pearson told the Sun-Times. “Everything’s going towards home plate, and everything’s in the zone.”

Before, Pearson was on the third-base side, which he said allowed lefties to see his pitches more easily.

“I wasn’t really hiding the ball,” Pearson said. “I was lacking a little bit of deception and getting my fastball hit pretty hard. I’ve seen a little bit of a change and mix-up since moving over.”

Hendricks in for sore Steele

Veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who did a stint in the bullpen earlier this season, was moved back there for Monday’s game but was not used. He’s now scheduled to start against the Pirates on Tuesday, replacing Justin Steele (sore elbow).