SELL: Mariners at Athletics Series Preview
The Mariners make one last trip to Oakland.
Well, the Mariners’ absolutely critical road trip didn’t start off the way they would have liked. The M’s finished their season series against the Angels with a 5-8 record and won just one of their final nine games against their hapless division rival. Five of those losses were blown by the bullpen in the eighth inning or later. If you wanted to point to one glaring reason — among many — that Seattle finds itself in its current position, those five losses stand out pretty starkly.
Speaking of lesser division rivals, the Mariners currently lead the season series against the A’s 6-4. Not only is this four-game series the final time these two teams matchup this year, it’s the final trip to Oakland before the A’s move to Sacramento next year and parts unknown in the years to come. The Colosseum hasn’t always been the nicest place to play, but no fan base should have their team slowly ripped away from them like Oakland has — and Seattle fans might have more cause to sympathize than most.
If you haven’t noticed, the A’s have been one of the best teams in the American League since the All-Star break. They’re 22-17 with a +10 run differential in the second half and have shown a lot of progress after losing over 100 games two years in a row.
Most of the progress has come in their lineup. They’ve churned through a ton of young, fringe players hoping to strike gold with a couple of them this year and they’ve uncovered a couple of gems. Lawrence Butler has been the most encouraging breakout; he had posted a 56 wRC+ through June, but has slashed .314/.353/.692 over the last two months with tons of power and a stable plate discipline profile. He joins Brent Rooker as two big boppers that can anchor this lineup. Jacob Wilson, son of former Mariner Jack Wilson, is a highly regarded prospect who flew through the farm system thanks to a batting average over .400 across 53 minor league games this year. He has ridiculous bat-to-ball skills, though he doesn’t have the power to really take advantage of a profile like that.
Probable Pitchers
Osvaldo Bido was an unheralded prospect in the Pirates organization who made his major league debut last year; his pretty decent 4.10 FIP far outpaced his 5.86 ERA but he was DFA’ed over the winter. The A’s picked him up as a minor league free agent and he’s been a revelation for them during the second half of the season. After shuttling between Triple-A and the majors as a reliever, he joined the rotation full-time after the All-Star break. Six of his seven starts have been fantastic, allowing three or fewer runs in each of them. His batted ball profile leans pretty heavily towards fly balls but he’s only allowed a pair of home runs this year; his 4.18 xFIP as a starter is more than full run above his ERA and FIP.
J.T. Ginn was part of the Chris Bassitt trade back in 2022, but he’s been on the injured list more often than on the mound during his time in the A’s organization. Finally, healthy, he’s moved through two minor league levels and recently made his major league debut. He’s got a strong sinking fastball that produces a ton of groundball contact but his secondary pitches have lacked development time so they lag pretty well behind his sinker. His slider is a bit further along than his changeup but both need to be refined before Ginn can reach his full potential.
From a previous series preview:
JP Sears improved nearly all of his peripherals last year except the one weakness he’s always struggled with: his home run rate. He allowed 34 dingers in 2023 and that’s the biggest reason why his FIP outpaced his ERA and xFIP by more than half a run. In an effort to curtail those long ball woes, he’s shuffled his pitch mix this year to feature his sweeper as his primary pitch while also increasing the usage of his sinker. His flat four-seam fastball will always generate an above average amount of whiffs thanks to its shape, but batters simply crush it when they make contact with it. The adjustments have appeared to have paid off; his ERA and FIP are much lower than they were last year and he’s already accumulated 1.2 fWAR, doubling his career total.
Sears allowed two runs on three hits across six innings in his only other appearance against the Mariners this year; he struck out eight.
Joey Estes made his season debut against the Mariners back in early May and held them to just a single run in five innings of work and then held them scoreless across 6.1 innings in a start a month later. He’s had a pretty good start to his big league career; he’s running a great strikeout-to-walk ratio thanks to a fantastic walk rate. His fastball is his best pitch with a ton of life up in the zone and pretty good command of it. His secondary offerings are average or worse, though his two breaking balls have shown a bit of promise this year.
The Big Picture:
The Mariners are now closer to the final Wild Card spot than they are the division lead. FanGraphs gives them an 11.2% chance of making the playoffs, with the larger balance of those odds coming via the Wild Card race. I guess we’re rooting for some old fashioned AL Central chaos now.