Series Preview: Mets Return Home to Host Red Sox

The Mets finally return home after a long road trip for a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox. Before we look at the upcoming matchup, let’s reflect on what was ultimately a successful road trip for the Mets.

METS FINISHED ROAD TRIP STRONG

After splitting their first series of the road trip against the Padres, the Mets still had to play six games against the Diamondbacks and White Sox. With the season ending sooner rather than later, the Mets had little margin for error as they continued to log flight miles across the country.

The Mets promptly handled business in Arizona, winning two out of three. Strong pitching performances from southpaws Sean Manaea and David Peterson played a major role in securing these integral victories.

Then, the Mets would be tested once again, as they traveled to Chicago with no off day in between to play three games against the White Sox. While the White Sox have drawn comparisons to the 1962 Mets due to their misfortunes this year, these games were still not guaranteed victories.

That said, the Mets once again asserted their dominance in a series sweep, again with the help of their effective starting pitchers.

Overall, they finished their 10-game road trip with a 7-3 record, which is a tremendous outcome given the demanding travel requirements. They now sit one game behind the Braves for the third NL Wild Card spot with the whole month of September in front of them.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

After a long road trip, the Mets do not have time to breathe yet. They begin their series against the Red Sox on Monday, just a day after their winning effort on the Southside. They face a Red Sox team largely out of the playoff race, with 4 1/2 games separating them from the third AL Wild Card spot. Never forget: anything can happen a month out from October.

However, the Mets are still very much in their race, a game behind the Braves and four games behind both the Padres and Diamondbacks. While reaching the first or second Wild Card spot may be a bit of a stretch, the third spot is certainly up for grabs. They will go up against the Braves in the penultimate series of the season at Truist Park. Therefore, the Mets must stay afoat until then to be within striking distance once they fly to Atlanta in late September.

Although it goes without saying, the Mets must treat every game as critical going forward, including these upcoming contests. The Red Sox have had their hot-and-cold moments this year, but come off a weekend series against the Tigers they lost. They finished August with a 13-15 record after extending manager Alex Cora. The bottom line is this is a team that the Mets need to beat if they want to convince themselves that they are true contenders.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Monday: RHP Brayan Bello (12-6, 4.66 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (9-6, 3.96 ERA): Bello comes off a tremendous outing, tossing eight scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. Despite his overall rocky season, he has settled in nicely as of late, with a 3.52 ERA in nine starts since July 14. Severino struck out nine in 4 2/3 innings last time, but he also allowed four runs. This has been the longest body of work Severino has produced in a long time, so this last month of the season will test his endurance, given his recent injury history. He has a 5.8 percent barrel rate this year, so it will be difficult for the Red Sox to produce strong contact.
• Tuesday: RHP Kutter Crawford (8-12, 4.12 ERA) vs. LHP David Peterson (8-1, 2.83 ERA): Crawford had a rough stretch in late July that spilled over into August, where he had a 9.75 ERA across five starts from July 21 to August 14. However, he has settled in since then, posting a 3.71 ERA in his last three starts. Crawford has struggled to limit barrels and initiate ground balls, so those are two areas that the Mets should look to exploit. Peterson, on the other hand, has been a revelation for the Mets this year. Just when you think he will regress, he puts up another dominant outing. He did that in his last start, pitching seven innings and allowing two runs against the Diamondbacks.
• Wednesday: RHP Tanner Houck (8-9, 3.12 ERA) vs. RHP Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.82 ERA): Houck is coming off six shutout innings with six strikeouts against the Tigers, in what has been an overall successful season. He has induced ground balls 55.2 percent of the time, while limiting barrels to just a 5.8 percent clip. He will likely be the toughest pitcher the Mets face this series, so they should be sure to put out their best lineup on Wednesday. Megill is back with the team after a stint in Triple-A Syracuse, and he was effective in his last start. He pitched 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts and one run allowed against the White Sox. Despite the similarity in name, the Red Sox are not the White Sox; Megill will be tested against a more disciplined offense.

WHO’S HOT

Jesse Winker

When was the last time the Mets struck a trade for an impactful offensive player? After several years of missing the mark, the Mets may have found their stride with Jesse Winker. He has not only reinvigorated the energy among players and fans alike, but he has also produced at an exceptional level lately. He is batting .471/.444/.765 in his last seven games with a home run and four RBIs. Since joining the Mets, Winker has had seven extra-base hits, nine RBIs, and 135 wRC+ in 79 plate appearances. His presence and continued production in the lineup will be essential to the team’s success this month.

Jarren Duran

Like Winker, Duran has been strong in recently. He is batting .393/.414/.857 with three home runs in his last seven games. He offers a combination of fielding, speed, and bat-to-ball skills that has proven to be a nightmare for opposing teams. Eleven of the All-Star MVP’s 21 home runs have come against fastballs, so it would be wise for Mets pitchers to bring some offspeed alternatives against him this week.

PREDICTION

With an off day coming Wednesday, the Mets will pour all their energy into this series and assert their position as the better team. They will win on Monday and Tuesday with strong performances from Severino and Peterson in front of the home crowd. However, the cards may not be stacked in the Mets’ favor on Wednesday, with the possibility of a Tylor Megill outing that takes them out of the game early. So, the final prediction is that the Mets win the series 2-1, with help from the Citi Field crowd that they have not seen in a while.

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