Southern California voters will have to fend off over 100 tax hikes and bonds this November

On their Nov. 5 ballots, Southern Californians face down 116 city tax increases or extensions, school taxes and school bonds. The bonds are paid for by property-tax increases and require only 55% approval. A sales tax for general purposes requires a majority, while one for special purposes requires two-thirds. The tallies:

Los Angeles County: an incredible 32 school bonds, one county sales tax increase, 18 city sales, parking or cannabis tax increases, three city bonds, three business license tax increases and two school parcel taxes.

Orange County: 10 school bonds, five city sales tax increases and one city hotel tax increase called a “transient occupancy tax.”

Riverside County: 12 school bonds, eight new or extended city sales taxes and one city hotel tax increase.

San Bernardino County: 11 school bonds, seven new or extended city sales taxes, a parcel tax and a business license tax increase.

Here are details for just a couple of the tax and bond measures. Half-cent sales tax increases in Los Angeles County and Cathedral City. Sales tax increases of 1 cent in Buena Park, Orange and Palm Desert City. Hotel tax increases of 2 cents in Hemet and 4 cents in Mission Viejo.

Bond taxes are listed on ballots showing the cost per $100,000 of assessed property valuation. As if this were 1994, when you could get a condo for $60,000. I’ve changed the number to the cost per $1 million, a more realistic figure.

A couple of bonds: $465 million for Palm Springs Unified SD, costing $395.8 a year per $1 million of assessed value through 2049. And $496 million for Anaheim Union High SD, costing $300 a year per $1 million of assessed value through 2057.

Bond proponents always say the higher taxes will not go to teacher salaries, only to fix leaky roofs and install computer systems so the kids learn AI. Except tax money is fungible. Funding buildings leaves other money for salaries. Even as the state now spends, on average, $24,314 per pupil, or $729,420 for a class of 30.

Then there are the statewide bonds. The Legislature and Gov. Gavin Newsom put on the Nov. 5 ballot Proposition 2, $10 billion in school-construction bonds. According to the Legislative Analyst, it will cost $500 million a year from the general fund to pay off over 35 years.

And Proposition 4, another $10 billion bond for parks, environmental and water projects. It will cost the general fund $400 million a year for 40 years.

If both state bonds pass, the general fund will be hit with $900 million in new spending annually. But with the state now running budget deficits as high as $73 billion for the 2024-25 fiscal year, where is that money coming from? I’ve long had a saying: Bonds are delayed tax increases. Already, state Treasurer Fiona Ma tallies $71.7 billion in state bond debt.

Finally, there’s Proposition 5, which would reduce from two-thirds to 55% the vote threshold for passing local bonds for housing and infrastructure. That will make such bonds as easy to pass as school bonds. Pepperdine University economics professor Gary Galles warned “infrastructure” is so vaguely defined “virtually anything could qualify. It would open the door to massive new tax hikes.”

Meanwhile, the economy is softening. This month the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced national unemployment jumped to 4.3% in July, up 0.2 percentage point from June. California unemployment also remains the worst in the country, 5.2%, about 1 point above the national average.

Locally, it was worse, 5.5% for Los Angeles County and 5.8% for the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario metro area. Although Orange County was lower, 4.4%.

And let’s not forget Controller Malia M. Cohen’s last Annual Comprehensive Financial Report clocked for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2022 – 26 months ago. Meaning we have no idea about the state’s real fiscal condition.

Something has to break. In the meantime, some friends in Orange soon will leave their tax hikes in California and hang their hats in Tennessee.

John Seiler is on the SCNG Editorial Board and blogs at: johnseiler.substack.com