Five cities that could be too hot to host the Olympics by 2041
As this year’s summer Olympics drew to a close, wildfires were licking the suburbs of Athens.
The devastating blazes, which turned the sky above the Acropolis orange with towering flames up to 25m high, were described as something from ‘hell’.
If Greece had been the host of the 2024 games, headlines surrounding the opening ceremony could have been a lot worse than athletes getting drenched in the rain.
But this is not a freak, once-in-a-lifetime event. As Earth’s climate warms and becomes more extreme, news of wildfires devouring the Mediterranean is becoming as predictable as mud at Glastonbury.
This poses a problem for the modern summer Olympics, because many cities in the world will soon simply be too hot for athletes to safely compete, and for spectators to watch them.
It means either the pool of potential hosts will shrink to only those in most temperate areas, or there will need to be big changes like events being mainly held indoors, or no longer taking place in August.
Andy Love from Shade the UK, a London-based campaign group and community interest company, told Metro.co.uk that it’s ‘not a case of just saying cities hotter than us won’t be able to have the Olympics, but it’s more that there are cities that aren’t ready for warmer temperatures and might not be able to handle it’.
Some cities, such as Qatar for the last World Cup, have searing temperatures but the money to install industrial-strength air conditioning, making it just about possible host major sporting events.
If energy-intensive cooling systems become required to make the Games tolerable, however, this would rule out many poorer countries and cause a damaging impact in terms of sustainability.
Which cities could be too hot to host the Olympics?
The red areas on the map below show areas projected to see significant changes in climate between 2041 and 2070. This is under a moderate warming scenario, and includes much of Europe and the US.
Metro has looked at some previous Olympic hosts, and how they may struggle in a changing world.
Athens (hosted in 1986 and 2004)
The birthplace of the Olympics was the first city to host the modern games, but Athens may never welcome them home due to soaring temperatures.
Extreme heat hit parts of the Mediterranean and Balkans for a sustained period this summer, with temperatures surpassing 40°C and travel warnings issued.
London (hosted in 1908, 1948 and 2012)
Our capital is tied with Paris as the city that has hosted the most Games: three times each.
But as anyone who was here for the 2022 heatwave knows, London is not a city that deals well with heat.
With millions of extra visitors needing transport and accommodation during the games period, it’s not just a case of building state-of-the art stadiums, but making sure existing infrastructure is up to scratch.
This isn’t yet the case for the UK, where railway lines buckle on hot days, the Tube network is mostly not air-conditioned, and there is a lack of shade on many streets meaning people have to walk under the sun.
Even our lacklustre summers can produce extreme heat, such as the record 40°C two years ago.
Rio de Janeiro (hosted in 2016)
The Brazilian city also hosted the Fifa World Cup in 2014, so has a track record with major sporting events.
But this year has been one of Brazil’s worst in history for wildfires, with millions of acres burned in August alone.
While many of the worst blazes were not close to Rio, they triggered a national emergency requiring a large government response, which would make hosting a huge international event at the same time difficult.
Even though summer in Rio runs from December to March – which means traditional Olympic dates avoid the hottest period – the city faces other natural challenges.
Rio is already vulnerable to landslides and flooding, and as a low-lying coastal area is also at risk from sea level rise.
Beijing (hosted in 2008)
The only city to have hosted both the summer and the winter Olympics has always had extremes of temperature.
But the heat, smog, and humidity may put Beijing out of consideration to hold the summer games again.
While August temperatures of 30°C are normal, in June last year the city recorded a record 40°C three days in a row, as heatwaves in China become more extreme as they have everywhere.
Rome (hosted in (1960)
Like London, Rome’s history dates back to ancient times. This means that unlike more modern cities, its buildings and transport systems are not designed to withstand extreme heat.
Heat deaths spike every summer, with average temperatures rising by 3.6C since 1971-2000, but the biggest problem facing Rome is its risk from flooding.
Much of the city is built on impermeable soil, meaning water has nowhere to go in heavy rainfall. The river Tiber has burst its banks causing devastating floods on several occasions previously.
Why can’t the Olympics be held in hot weather?
The most obvious reason is that humidity and heat combined make it too dangerous for athletes who are already pushing their bodies to their limits.
Carbon Plan data analysed by CNN showed how by 2050, maximum wet bulb temperatures (taking into account things like humidity and wind as well as just the temperature) across much of the eastern US would be well above 32°C: so hot that working outside would mean risking heat illness or even death.
Projected temperatures for 2040-2059 could rule out much of India, Africa, southern Europe and East Asia.
What could be done to adapt the Olympics?
The simplest solution, and one which has already been done, is to change the date.
While the summer events have almost always been held in July and August for over 50 years, this is peak summer for many of the potential host cities.
The summer Olympics may become more of an autumn Olympics, pushed forward to late September, like when it was hosted by Seoul in 1988 and Sydney in 2000.
This would require the least heavy lifting, especially when another option could mean moving more events indoors into huge covered arenas.
Some events like the marathon could be held indoors without being severely compromised, but it would be possible (though time consuming) to shade the whole route, Andy said.
In extreme temperatures, however, even the shade gets too hot to function so we might see more and more cases of piecemeal hosting, where certain events are held in different places.
Another option for adaptation is holding events early in the morning or late in the evening, when temperatures are not at the peak and the sun is not at its highest so there is more shade.
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