Emmy Experts Typing: Can ‘Only Murders in the Building’ nab an above-the-line win?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, with the premiere of “Only Murders in the Building’s” fourth season, we discuss its win chances for its third season.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back to type about our favorite murder podcasters. Season 4 of “Only Murders in the Building” debuted this week, after voting for this year’s Emmys closed, and seemingly already buttressed its 2025 Emmy campaign with a hilarious opening episode. We’ve seen seven episodes of the season thus far — screener brag — and I’m ready to call this… the best season yet? ( “Hacks” Season 3.) I’ve loved the twists and turns ahead — no spoilers — and the show’s ability to make room for its cavalcade of A-grade guest talent like Zach Galifianakis, Emmy host Eugene Levy, scene-stealer Eva Longoria and beloved character actor Richard Kind amid its core threesome remains something that leaves me in awe. None of the “Only Murders” Season 4 additions feel like stunt casting, and the writing leaves room for everyone to shine (I’m particularly agog over Molly Shannon, who absolutely heists her scenes as the season moves forward). Season 4 also elevates Oscar winner and current Emmy nominee Da’Vine Joy Randolph back to prominence after her brief turn in Season 3 and she remains a great comedy foil for Steve Martin, Martin Short and Selena Gomez. Most of these names will compete next year for supporting nominations — the threshold for appearing in half the episodes has been met already through the seven we’ve seen by almost everyone there — but that’ll be a Sophie’s Choice for the 2025 versions of Chris and Joyce. (Speaking of which: Meryl Streep is back as well and a potential guest actress nominee next year.) So what does this mean for this year, where “Only Murders” over-performed? Not a single thing. But the season has left us wondering: will the show ever break through in the Primetime Emmys ceremony? Thus far, “Only Murders” has won four Emmys out of its previous 38 nominations — all at the Creative Arts, two for its production design (it could win again there this year), one for sound mixing and a guest award for Nathan Lane. I don’t expect this year to be much different — it feels like the frontrunner for music and lyrics and could win PD again — but what if it is? With “The Bear” and “Hacks” remaining in play, it’s hard to imagine any of the leads winning deserved awards for their turns, and the supporting categories remain stacked before accounting for the onslaught of “Murders” contenders to come for 2025. But this year, “Only Murders” has Streep in Best Comedy Supporting Actress, in a year in which the show had its best showing yet with the academy. No one is more beloved than Streep as an actor — so much so that she’s taken for granted and hasn’t won nearly as much as people might think in the last couple of decades. She’s up against our fave, Hannah Einbinder, a co-lead in a comedy series that has shown an ability to win above the line who is nominated for her best work yet in the show’s best season yet (). It feels like Streep won’t win, and Einbinder will take the win she so richly deserves. But what if I continue to underrate Streep’s Streepiness? What if voters will just go for her not just because she’s Meryl Streep but because even after all these years, she’s still able to surprise with a character like Loretta, someone I’ve never really seen her play before? All of this is a long way to say: Will Streep give “Only Murders” its first Primetime Emmy win?

joyceeng: Feels like it was just yesterday when you were predicting a Streep snub. Good times. I don’t think Streep will beat Einbinder. This reminds me of her loss at the Golden Globes to Elizabeth Debicki, someone else who did exemplary work on a show that has a better track record at said awards show than “Only Murders in the Building” does. The category would be a lot more interesting if Einbinder were not here. While Streep is second in the odds to Einbinder, many people, including us, have Liza Colón-Zayas there based on the general strength of “The Bear” and Season 3’s Tina showcase, “Napkins,” one of the few consensus brighter spots in a mixed season. You don’t get anything for second place, but what if it is Streep in the runner-up spot? She is arguably “Only Murders'” best shot at an above-the-line win. Series, both lead categories and supporting actor feel out of reach and all have reigning or former champions from “The Bear” or “Hacks” who will probably prevail again, while neither Einbinder nor LCZ have won yet. And not that it would’ve won writing or directing, but “Only Murders” missed those categories. I do feel better about Streep’s chances next year if she remains eligible in guest. Hulu’s campaign this year has also zeroed in on a Best Music and Lyrics win for “Which of the Pickwick Triplets Did It?” and thus completing the EGOT for Pasek and Paul. Streep’s emotional lullaby, “Look for the Light,” written by the duo and Sara Bareilles, was sacrificed in this endeavor and not submitted. If it’s not Streep, which “Only Murders” actor can you picture winning? The guest categories could serve chaos and go with Matthew Broderick, I guess (Randolph winning would be less weird). Interestingly, Martin is in fifth place in the Best Comedy Actor odds, while Short is in second. Is this just because he was snubbed last year and now everyone assumes voters don’t like Steve as much as they like Marty?

SEE Experts slugfest: Anonymous Emmy Phase 2 ballots revealed as voting closes

Christopher Rosen: It’s funny, in terms of the Martins, I could argue Short had the meatier part in Season 3 — and his onscreen relationship with Streep was clearly one of the things that really worked during that run of episodes. But Martin had “Pickwick Triplets” and, if nothing else, it’s honestly hard to imagine another actor pulling off that single performance. (For Season 4, I think the Martins are more evenly split, although no one gets off as many laugh lines as Short.) Broderick would be hilarious — I don’t think anyone is taking him seriously as a winner as we typed last week, but his category is also ripe for tomfoolery (and this is the only spot where “Murders” has won an acting award). I do wonder, however, if Season 4 had been released during voting if Randolph would’ve muddied an already muddy Best Comedy Guest Actress category. (As we discussed last week, Jamie Lee Curtis is the frontrunner, but you could make a case for Maya Rudolph on her forthcoming Kamala vibes and Kaitlin Olson because she’s just an undeniable force.) I hate to keep moving to next year, but in terms of next year: If “The Bear” Season 3 keeps catching strays and then Season 4 either doesn’t come out next summer or continues the purported downward slide, does that make Jeremy Allen White vulnerable and then, if so, does Short become the category frontrunner? A lot of strawmen there to consider. We haven’t talked about Paul Rudd yet and I don’t think he’s first or second in the supporting actor race, but could you argue he’s actually the bronze medal winner this year?

joyceeng: I believe I said during our review of Season 3 of “The Bear” — and definitely have since then — that JAW’s win streak will probably come to an end at the winter awards, which will then take us to the Emmys, where he likely will not three-peat. I’m not gonna call a win for either Martin right now since there are gonna be contenders we haven’t even seen yet, but the winter, during which “The Bear” will actually be competing for its third season, is the time for other shows to strike since “The Bear” will be the most vulnerable it’s been yet. Rudd is fascinating because he’s no one is talking about him, which was also the case through Phase 1. I wouldn’t call him a filler nominee, but he’s not exactly win-competitive either. He has also never been nominated for an industry award until now — and he got two noms this year since he’s also up for narrating “Secrets of the Octopus.” Is he one of those beloved veterans who just needs to be put in the game to thrive? In a weaker year, you could really argue him for a win. We’d be remiss if we don’t mention first-time acting nominee Selena Gomez, who sits in sixth and last in the Best Comedy Actress odds. I can’t say I disagree with that as the other five nominees have a lot more in their favor, but I also think she might finish higher than that in the final tabulation that we’ll never see.

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Can Maya Rudolph take down Jamie Lee Curtis?

Christopher Rosen: This is why we need to see the vote totals. Gomez wouldn’t be my pick this year, but I think she’s awfully funny in Season 4. I guess we can wrap it where I started: Joyce, will “Murders” Season 4 be the ticket to a Primetime Emmy win?

joyceeng: We can only hope it sends the Emmy race into a whole new direction. I also wanna give a shout-out to Michael Cyril Creighton, the show’s other series regular who’s not a marquee name but continues to do great stuff in Season 4. I’ll co-host “Animal Jobs” with you, Howard!

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