Summer COVID surge shows we may have to return to 2020 pandemic measures 

As summer 2024 draws to a close, the U.S. finds itself once again grappling with a surge in COVID-19 infections.

This wave has taken many people by surprise, particularly as the country has largely consigned the pandemic to the past. While public life has pretty much returned to pre-pandemic norms — something almost none of us would have believed in the summer of 2020 — the virus itself has not.

Mutations of the virus continue to occur, and new variants are emerging, posing ongoing challenges to public health and safety. As we look ahead to the remainder of 2024 and into early 2025, we need to take stock of where we are, understand the factors driving this resurgence and better anticipate how the pandemic might evolve. 

The recent surge in COVID-19 cases has disrupted summer travel plans, overwhelmed healthcare facilities in certain areas, and left many Americans dealing with the familiar symptoms of fever, cough and fatigue. The summer months, typically associated with lower respiratory virus activity, have instead seen a significant uptick in COVID-19 infections. Several factors contribute to this unexpected surge.

One factor is the high transmissibility of newer variants. The virus has continued to mutate, with certain variants displaying enhanced ability to spread, even among populations with high vaccination rates. While vaccines remain effective at preventing severe disease and death, breakthrough infections are becoming more common, especially as immunity from earlier vaccinations wanes. 

Second, the widespread relaxation of public health measures has created an environment conducive to transmission. Mask mandates, social distancing guidelines and restrictions on large gatherings have all but disappeared. This return to normalcy, while massively psychologically and economically beneficial, has provided the virus with ample opportunities to spread. 

Finally, the pervasive sense of pandemic fatigue has led to a serious decline in vigilance. Many people, weary of the pandemic's disruptions to their lives, have become markedly less cautious. This complacency, coupled with the underestimation of the virus's ability to adapt, has allowed COVID-19 to regain a foothold. 

The federal government’s response to the latest surge has been tepid at best. After years of intense focus on COVID-19, there is a palpable desire in Washington to move on. This has resulted in a fragmented approach, with responsibility for managing the current wave largely devolving to state and local governments. While some have reinstated certain precautions, others have continued with business as usual, leading to inconsistent messaging and outcomes. 

Moreover, the federal government’s decision to end the public health emergency earlier this year has had unintended consequences. The end of the emergency declaration led to a reduction in federal funding for testing, contact tracing, and vaccination efforts, just as these tools are once again needed. The lack of a coordinated national strategy has hampered efforts to control the surge and has left healthcare providers scrambling to manage increased caseloads with fewer resources. 

Looking ahead, the trajectory of the pandemic remains uncertain, but there are several key trends and scenarios to consider. 

The virus is likely to continue mutating, with new variants emerging that could potentially evade immunity from previous infections or vaccinations. This means that COVID-19 will remain a moving target, requiring ongoing surveillance and adaptation of public health strategies. The development of updated vaccines and treatments will be critical in staying ahead of the virus, but the speed at which these can be rolled out will determine their effectiveness. 

We can and should also expect periodic surges in COVID-19 cases, particularly in the fall and winter months, when respiratory viruses typically thrive. These surges may not reach the levels seen during the height of the pandemic, but they could still cause significant disruption, particularly in areas with low vaccination rates or limited healthcare capacity. Localized outbreaks, driven by specific variants or super-spreader events, will likely become regular features of the landscape. 

The healthcare system, already strained from years of dealing with the pandemic, is also going to face additional pressure if the current surge continues into the fall and winter. Hospitals and clinics will need to balance the demands of COVID-19 patients with the resumption of regular medical care that had been postponed during the pandemic’s earlier phases. This balancing act could lead to increased wait times, resource shortages and burnout among healthcare workers. 

And we can’t underestimate how public fatigue with COVID-19 precautions will grow, making it more difficult to reimpose restrictions or encourage preventive behaviors. This resistance could be particularly strong in regions that have experienced relatively low case numbers or where political leaders have downplayed the severity of the virus. Overcoming this fatigue will require clear and consistent communication from public health officials, as well as community-level engagement to reinforce the importance of ongoing vigilance. 

We are also making a big mistake if we ignore the economic and social implications of continued COVID-19. The virus’s persistence may lead to renewed disruptions in the travel industry, supply chains and workforce participation. Along with this, the psychological toll of a prolonged pandemic, with the associated uncertainty and anxiety, could have lasting effects on mental health and societal cohesion. Policymakers will need to address these challenges proactively, with a focus on resilience and support for affected populations. 

So where do we realistically go from here, given that it is clear that COVD-19 is far from over?  While much progress has been made in terms of vaccination and treatment, the current surge is a stark reminder that complacency is not an option. The road ahead will require a renewed commitment to public health, both from government leaders and from individuals. 

We all need to prepare for not only the possibility of continued disruptions but for another new normal that might be a little closer to 2020 than how we’ve recently been living. That means preparing for future waves and the long-term implications of a world in which COVID-19 remains a persistent, if manageable, threat.  

Aron Solomon is the chief strategy officer for Amplify. He has taught entrepreneurship at McGill University and the University of Pennsylvania.