A Pennsylvania Republican plots victory — with mail-in ballots

Tom Eddy has a message for Republicans on how they can put Pennsylvania in Donald Trump's win column in November. The only problem is that the candidate keeps spoiling the script.

For more than a year in Erie County, in the swing state's northwestern corner, Eddy has tried to persuade people to vote by mail.

At first, he was laughed at or ignored, with Trump supporters at rallies echoing the former president's long-debunked claims that postal ballots are fraudulent. But Eddy didn't take it personally.

As the Republican Party chair in Erie, the determined 75-year-old has not given up, volunteering every day to change people's minds, with only one goal in his own: winning. Unlike last time.

"That's what lost the race for Trump. We got clobbered," he says of the 2020 election, recalling how he watched mail-in votes for Joe Biden outnumber those for Trump by as much as 100 to 1 in some batches.

Surrounded by Trump placards, flags and other paraphernalia in his office, Eddy -- a retired high school teacher -- explains how skeptics often will accept a mail-in ballot by the end of a conversation.

He tells people it eliminates the risk of them being unable to show up on Election Day, if they or a family member is sick, or if they get delayed or given last-minute overtime at work.

"It's our main effort," he says of the campaign.

Trump blamed mail-in ballots for his 2020 defeat, and although he has sometimes toned down his rhetoric about them being "totally corrupt," he frequently goes off message when questioned on the topic.

With Kamala Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic standard-bearer, the latest polls show her ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, meaning a marginal gain from early voting in places like Erie may be what ultimately seals victory.

In 2020, Biden had a more than three-to-one overall advantage with mail-in ballots in Erie -- 32,929 to Trump's 9,279 -- overcoming Trump's polling day lead of more than 20,000.

The upshot was a reversal of the 2,348-vote margin by which Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, resulting in an even tighter 1,319-vote victory for Biden.

Eddy wants to ensure that Team Trump does not suffer the same fate this time.

- Bellwether county -

Erie County has picked each presidential election winner since 2008. And where Erie's urban center, rural towns and farms go, so goes Pennsylvania -- America's largest must-win swing state, pollsters say.

Long seen as blue-collar, its industrial footprint has shrunk. An insurance company replaced General Electric as the largest employer, the population has fallen for more than a decade, and factories have either closed or gotten smaller.

Such mixed fortunes have contributed to the county's "boomerang" status, with voters flipping between Republican and Democratic presidential candidates.

Discontent over Biden's presidency is a factor for voters, but Harris's elevation has removed the old age problem from the table. Trump's ongoing legal jeopardy, particularly about the January 6, 2021 insurrection, remains a talking point -- but not a dominant one.

Erie's urban to rural contrast can be stark. While Biden won all 63 precincts in Erie City last time, Trump dominated rural areas.

- Distrust of mail vote -

In Corry, a picturesque but poor town 33 miles (53 kilometers) east of Erie City that Trump won strongly in 2020, an already bruising 2024 race has hardened some views.

DJ Terrill, a 47-year-old coiled springs maker, is scathing about both political parties -- and certain of one thing.

"I don't trust any government. Fraud," he says of voting anywhere other than a polling station, agreeing with Trump's claims about why he lost to Biden. "I need to show ID to buy cigarettes -- you should have to show it to vote."

Winning the turnout battle is what Jim Wertz, then Erie County's Democratic Party chair, did in 2020, largely by expanding mail-in voting.

Wertz, who is running for the Pennsylvania state senate this time around, believes that advantage can be replicated.

"It's nice that they have come around," Wertz says of Republicans such as Eddy. "It sure makes a change to 'stolen' and 'fraud' and worse terms they've used."

Beyond Republicans (40 percent) and Democrats (46 percent), 14 percent of Erie County's registered voters are classed as independent. They may be the final deciders.

For Eddy, the race is still anyone's game.

"There's my man," he says excitedly, as a UPS driver draws up outside his office. The source of his enthusiasm -- 3,000 newly arrived mail-in ballot application forms.

"I've got 2,000 more in the cupboards back here," he adds. "For Republicans, whether for Trump, Congress or Senate, to win in Pennsylvania, we've got to get people to use this method of voting."