With Jokowi’s Maneuvering, Indonesian Democracy Faces Gravest Threat Since Suharto’s Fall – Analysis

By Pizaro Gozali Idrus

Indonesian democracy is facing the gravest threat to its survival since authoritarian President Suharto fell in 1998, with recent student-led protests reflecting that citizens are pushing back, analysts said.

Democratic state institutions have been weakened in a bid to enable power consolidation, nepotism, dynasticism and enrichment – seemingly so that outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo can continue to influence politics after he leaves office in October, analysts and activists said.

It appeared the Jokowi government “doesn’t care about legal and democratic norms,” said Firman Noor, a political science professor at the National Research and Innovation Agency.

“This is the lowest point for our democracy during the Reformasi era,” he told BenarNews.

“It affects everything from ethical foundations to constitutional matters and rampant nepotism.”

Reformasi refers to the period of democratic reform after the ouster of Suharto, a former army general who had ruled the country for more than three decades.

Last week’s student-led protests were triggered by the parliament’s efforts to fast-track a bill that critics say was designed to pave the way for Jokowi’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, and other allies to run for local office.

The bill sought to overturn a recentConstitutional Court rulingthat lowered the threshold for political parties to nominate candidates in local elections – a move intended to democratize the process and increase political competition.

The House of Representatives (DPR), known for its glacial legislative pace, had drafted the bill in a day.

It was set for a vote in the DPR on Aug. 22, and many believed it would pass, as almost all parliamentary parties were a part of Prabowo’s post-poll alliance.

It did not.

Thousands of people, led by university students, took to the streets with participants including intellectuals, and public figures, highlighting the broad support for the movement to drop the bill.

Social media was flooded with a blue “Emergency Warning” image, symbolizing a call to action amid a crisis in Indonesia’s democracy.

Huge rallies were held not just in Jakarta, but also in Candung, Yogyakarta, Samarinda, Semarang and other places. Police detained more than 300 people in Jakarta alone.

In response to the backlash, parliament ultimately withdrew the bill, blocking Kaesang’s potential candidacy.

Jokowi was thwarted from expanding his political dynasty.

Arulinglast year allowed Jokowi’s eldest son,Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to successfully run for vice president with Prabowo Subianto, now Indonesia’s president-elect.

‘Frustration has reached new heights’

The intensity of the public outcry surpassed the reaction to the Constitutional Court’s decision last year that allowed Gibran to pursue national office.

Critics railed against the decision alleging favouritism that undermined the democratic process, but few were out on the streets demonstrating.

The difference this time, according to Verrel Uziel, head of the University of Indonesia’s student board, is their protest could not be linked to party politics associated with a presidential election.

“When we opposed Gibran’s candidacy as vice president, it was easy for others to accuse us of partisanship” related to the presidential election, Verrel told BenarNews.

“Now, the situation has evolved, and the public’s frustration has reached new heights.”

Additionally, he said that public anger had been simmering since the election, during which many perceived that Jokowi, who is supposed to remain neutral, supported Prabowo.

Analysts said that after the February general election, a number of revisions to laws were proposed in the House of Representatives in what was essentially a lame duck period for Jokowi, some of which would smooth governance for Prabowo.

These revisions, they said, also appeared to strike at the heart of democratic principles like the separation of powers, a free press, and a robust opposition.

And the proposed changes may politicize state institutions; consolidate power in a few hands with strategic power-sharing to aid that process; increase the presence of the military in civil organizations; expand the powers of the police; and dangle incentives to large groups to court their support.

Parallelly, a redistribution of power and leadership within some parties and coalitions, smelled fishy to many

Usman Hamid, executive director of Amnesty International Indonesia, said all these moves, along with the repression of public dissent and the undermining of election integrity, have cracked the painstakingly built democratic edifice of the Southeast Asian nation.

“These developments are reminiscent of the pre-1998 era when the public was largely excluded from political processes,” he told BenarNews.

Usman was not the only one making a comparison with Suharto.

Ali Sahab, a political analyst at Airlangga University, compared Jokowi’s governance to the repressive methods of Suharto’s regime.

“The rules are being bent to serve the interests of those in power,” he told BenarNews.

“Opponents are weakened, and supporters are bolstered, rendering free and fair competition – the heart of democracy – nonexistent.”

Last week, Golkar, the country’s second-largest party, elected Bahlil Lahadalia, a staunch Jokowi loyalist, as its new chairman.

Analysts suggest this move is part of Jokowi’s strategy to maintain influence in the incoming administration of Prabowo, who is scheduled to be sworn as president on Oct. 20.

Airlangga University’s Ali described this relationship as “mutually beneficial,” where policies favor the interests of those who support the government.

Ali argued that beyond Jokowi, political parties themselves have played a significant role in the erosion of democracy in Indonesia.

“Party leaders in Indonesia often come from business backgrounds or control major media outlets, giving them vested interests in maintaining the status quo,” he said.

“In the end, they betrayed their voters,” Ali said.

And yet, Jokowi remains a popular figure in Indonesia. Recent polls show his approval rating around 76%.

Verrel, the student leader, said that an uncritical populace had allowed Jokowi to maintain his popularity.

“People are easily deceived by shallow political maneuvers,” he said, citing Jokowi’s use of social assistance programs to bolster support.

More of the same?

As Jokowi’s presidency draws to a close, attention is shifting to Prabowo, the current defense minister and former general who served under Suharto.

Prabowo on Saturday dismissed concerns over potential interference by Jokowi, but warned about the dangers of foreign meddling, drawing parallels to the unrest at the height of the 1998 financial crisis that led to Suharto’s downfall.

“We were on the verge of taking off, but we were undermined by foreign powers,” he said.

Asked whether Prabowo will continue Jokowi’s authoritarian tendencies or chart a new course, Fawwaz was skeptical.

“Prabowo might just be an extension ofJokowi’s rule,” he warned. “The coalition is being handed down to Prabowo, and with Jokowi’s support, we could see more of the same.”

Prabowo, a former army general with acontroversial military pastdating to the country’s Suharto era, in Marchcalled democracy very “messy.”