A neural network approach to predict opioid misuse among previously hospitalized patients using electronic health records

by Lucas Vega, Winslow Conneen, Michael A. Veronin, Robert P. Schumaker

Can Electronic Health Records (EHR) predict opioid misuse in general patient populations? This research trained three backpropagation neural networks to explore EHR predictors using existing patient data. Model 1 used patient diagnosis codes and was 75.5% accurate. Model 2 used patient prescriptions and was 64.9% accurate. Model 3 used both patient diagnosis codes and patient prescriptions and was 74.5% accurate. This suggests patient diagnosis codes are best able to predict opioid misuse. Opioid misusers have higher rates of drug abuse/mental health disorders than the general population, which could explain the performance of diagnosis predictors. In additional testing, Model 1 misclassified only 1.9% of negative cases (non-abusers), demonstrating a low type II error rate. This suggests further clinical implementation is viable. We hope to motivate future research to explore additional methods for universal opioid misuse screening.