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2024

NHC Director Dr. Michael Brennan joins Tracking the Tropics

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TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) -- On this edition of Tracking the Tropics, WFLA meteorologists Amanda Holly and Rebecca Barry sat down for a conversation with Dr. Michael Brennan, Director of the National Hurricane Center, as we near the peak of hurricane season.

The NHC, located in Miami, issues forecasts, watches and warnings ahead of tropical development to keep people safe and to help prepare infrastructure, property and commerce for oncoming storms.

NOAA still calls for an active hurricane season, which has featured the record-breaking Category 5 hurricane Beryl, even though the tropics have been relatively quiet recently.

"In terms of the overall strength and duration of the storms this year, it's been well above average," Brennan said. "Even though the number of named storms, at five now, is more what you'd typically see as you get into late August and early September."

Even if it's quiet right now, people on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, as well as the Caribbean, should be prepared for a potential storm.

"In September, we can get formation anywhere in the basin," Brennan said. "Anywhere from the deep tropical Atlantic, like that system we're looking at now. We can have systems form much closer to land, much closer to Florida in the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, off the southeast coast of the United States near the Bahamas."

You can watch the full conversation with Dr. Brennan in the video player above.

Looking to the tropics, the NHC is monitoring a tropical wave in the Atlantic that could slowly develop this weekend into early next week as it drifts west-northwestward. Its chance of formation within the next 48 hours is near-zero and its chance of formation over the next seven days is about 20%.

There are signs the tropics will start to get more active over the next few weeks. Tropical waves will exit the coast of Africa into more favorable conditions, as is expected during peak hurricane season.