View from Manila: New tension points with China

MANILA, Philippines – Just a few months ago, Escoda (Sabina) Shoal would only be mentioned in passing in discussions of tensions between the Philippines and China in the West Philippine Sea.

The shoal, a low-tide elevation some 75 nautical miles from Palawan, is close to Ayungin Shoal and is where the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Navy-contracted ships usually rendezvous for resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre.

Nowadays, it’s the focus of those discussions. Tensions are heating up in the West Philippine Sea, and a lot of it is taking place close to Escoda Shoal. 

In the span of a week, we’ve seen two separate collision incidents between vessels in Escoda (Sabina Shoal), and flares during aerial maritime patrols over Escoda Shoal, Scarborough (or Panatag) Shoal, and Zamora Reef (Subi Reef). 

Here’s a timeline of incidents between the Philippines and China in the West Philippine Sea (that we know of) from August 19 and August 26: 

August 19

• The China Coast Guard (CCG) collided with two Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ships some 20 nautical miles away from Escoda Shoal, which is off the province of Palawan. The two ships, which were en route to Patag and Lawak Islands, sustained structural damage as a result of China’s actions. 
• On the same day, the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) conducted a Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) flight over Scarborough Shoal, when China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) performed “irresponsible and dangerous maneuvers” and used flares against it. Scarborough is off the province of Zambales.

August 22

• The same BFAR plane conducted another MDA flight to monitor and intercept poachers within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and the territorial waters of the Kalayaan Island Group, which Manila claims. During the flight, China launched flares from Zamora (Subi) Reef, which they’ve already turned into an outpost. 

August 25

• A BFAR vessel, the BRP Datu Sanday was rammed by the CCG, then subject to the water cannons of several other CCG ships some 10 nautical miles away from Escoda Shoal, as it tried to conduct a humanitarian mission and bring fuel, food, and medicine to fisherfolk in the area. The water cannons led to engine failure, forcing the Datu Sanday to cut short its mission. 

More than a week before the twin incidents on August 19, the PLAAF also used flares against a Philippine Air Force (PAF) plane on a routine air patrol over Scarborough Shoal. That same day, the Philippines, United States, Australia, and Canada were holding maritime drills in the West Philippine Sea. 

It begs asking at this point: are tensions and the constant fear of miscalculations now the new normal in these waters? Cooler heads hope not. 

Videos taken by the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS) from the August 25 collision and water cannons in Escoda Shoal still stir both concern and anger. 

“Lahat ng China Coast Guard, naka water cannon na (All of the CCG are using their water cannons),” said one voice in a video taken from inside the BRP Datu Sanday, which was supposed to bring fuel, food, and medicine to fisherfolk fishing near Escoda Shoal.

The NTF-WPS said at least 8 CCG ships took turns engaging in “aggressive and dangerous maneuvers” against the BRP Datu Sanday. 

China’s trigger

China is convinced that the Philippines intends to permanently place the PCG’s BRP Teresa Magbanua in Escoda, just like it did when the BRP Sierra Madre was ran aground in Ayungin back in 1999. But the BRP Teresa Magbanua is one of only two 97-meter vessels in the PCG’s roster. Grounding her in Escoda Shoal on purpose would only make it even harder for the PCG to cover all its maritime bases.  

All in all, China has around 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven outposts in the Spratlys, according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. On top of the 27 outposts in those two island groups, there’s Scarborough Shoal, a high-tide elevation within the West Philippine Sea which Beijing has controlled since 2012.  

The Philippines is outnumbered and outclassed at sea. Manila has, however, been fortifying its external defense ties – with the US and Japan, most notably. It’s also been trying to improve ties with co-claimants Brunei and Vietnam.

But it’s only recently that the Philippine military has officially switched to focus on external defense, and the Philippines is only starting to finalize and operationalize its “Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept.” Horizon 3, or re-Horizon 3, has been approved but will take years to roll out.

NOTAM: Tweak in strategy?

Magbanua’s stubborn refusal to leave Escoda has clearly agitated China.

The PCG, on Monday, August 26 sent two ships, the BRP Cabra and BRP Cape Engaño, for a humanitarian resupply mission to the bigger Magbanua. This mission is different. It was announced and made public even as the two ships were still on their way to the shoal.

Unlike the PCG’s August 19 resupply mission to Lawak and Patag and the BFAR’s August 25 mission to Escoda, the PCG issued a Notice to All Mariners to inform everyone — not just China — of what the BRP Cabra and BRP Cape Engaño will be doing, and where they’ll be heading. 

The PCG did this in the past for resupply missions to Ayungin Shoal. The practice seems to have stopped in August 2022 because the Philippines felt that China was using the NOTAM to further its own narrative that it was Beijing that had authority over the shoal.

The choice to issue a NOTAM for Escoda this time is interesting. 

Prior to the “provisional agreement” to ease tensions in Ayungin Shoal, government officials did consider the issuance of a NOTAM to at least make public that a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre was going to take place. The Philippines eventually settled on an “exchange of information” with China during Ayungin resupplies, although the full details of that temporary deal remain vague. 

Will a NOTAM be enough to avoid yet another dangerous confrontation in Escoda Shoal? Will the Philippines be able to bring precious supplies to the Magbanua? Or will China’s attempt to choke the ship and her crew into heading back to shore finally work? 

Paparo in Manila 

Thus, despite the high from announcing the United States’ $500 million Foreign Military Financing package, the Philippines is stuck in the grim reality that is China in the WPS.

It’s a situation that Admiral Samuel Paparo will be thinking about as he visits Manila this week in time for the regular Mutual Defense Board and Security Engagement Board (MDB-SEB) in the Philippines. Paparo is chief of the United States Indo Pacific Command (Indopacom), which oversees the American military’s operations in the entire Indo-Pacific. 

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has visited the Indopacom headquarters in Hawaii before, during a November 2023 visit to the United States (but Paparo was not its chief then).

A day after that visit, the Philippines and United States held its first-ever joint air and sea exercise in different parts of the West Philippine Sea. 

The MDB-SEB is where Philippine and US leaders formally agree on the joint exercises that its militaries will hold in the coming year. So we expect topics like the upcoming Balikatan, as well as other joint military drills, to be in the discussion. But will they also talk about Japan’s Self-Defense Force playing a bigger role in Balikatan now that the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) has been signed (but not yet agreed on by the Philippine and Japanese Congress)? 

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. is sure about what he isn’t prioritizing: talk on what constitutes an “armed attack” in the context of the Mutual Defense Treaty. 

“That is putting the cart before the horse. Let us deter an armed attack — that is the more important thing here [and] that is what I am focused on doing. Everybody is focused on [defining an] armed attack. Let us make ourselves strong enough so that doesn’t happen,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the government’s National Heroes Day event on Monday, August 26. – Rappler.com