Beyonce may not have shown up — but it sounded like Nikki Haley did
Even without Beyonce, the Dems managed to pull off a full-throated, coordinated unity rally that matched the enthusiasm we saw last month from the Republican Party.
The Democrats toyed with the press that there was going to be a surprise guest, but no headliner showed up. Thinking back on it, I wondered if they did have a surprise speaker – a certain former governor of South Carolina. More on that later.
The race remains very close – with former President Donald Trump (in polls taken prior to the Democratic convention) still commanding the support of both his deep red MAGA base, but also non-MAGA Republicans who had wanted to nominate someone else.
KAMALA HARRIS’ STYLE-OVER-SUBSTANCE CAMPAIGN PRAISED BY JOURNALISTS: ‘IT’S A VIBES ELECTION’
Media outlets commissioned focus groups of undecided voters. And guess what? Those outlets found that almost all their "undecided" folks had moved to Harris by the end of her convention.
Sorry guys. That’s not enough.
Heading into the convention, the most reputable pollsters showed that Trump still had ~48% of the vote. If voting patterns this November – when Trump’s on the ballot a third time – look anything like the last two times he ran – Dems piling up huge margins in reliable Blue States (think California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois) – Donald Trump’s 48% share will be more than enough. He’ll get a majority in the Electoral College – and return to the Oval Office.
Trump doesn’t need undecided voters – he just needs to hold onto voters that were with him against President Joe Biden – and remained with him during the first few weeks of the Harris campaign.
The only way Harris can win is if she cuts into that support.
During the short Republican primary campaign, roughly half of Republicans who voted for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley indicated that they would not vote for Donald Trump in November. We saw that in our Fox News Voter Analysis which we conducted with the Associated Press, and the other news outlets showed that in their "Exit Poll."
But since the nominations were decided, polling has shown that almost all non-MAGA GOP voters had "gone home" and were ready to vote for Trump (against Biden, and, later, Harris).
Even Nikki Haley – who had earlier called on Trump to seek to win over her voters – came to the GOP Convention and announced that she was strongly endorsing her former employer turned nemesis.
And, if Trump holds onto that Haley voter support – he’ll likely retain his 48% support and return to the presidency.
Listening to Harris’ mercifully short speech (mercifully short in words, but equally short in policy proposals) – a part of me wondered "Who wrote this? – Harris’ team – or Haley?"
Yes, Harris did not say the word "inflation" even once. She only said the word "economy" three times and that was only because it’s in her thematic expression "Opportunity Economy."
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Yes, she defended Biden’s record and tried to inoculate herself against what Haley describes as a presidency that is a "disaster" – and she attacked Trump more directly than Haley ever did, but otherwise she followed what I always thought was Haley’s intended general election playbook.
First, she sought to link both Trump and Biden together as part of the painful divisions that the country has experienced, casting the election as an "opportunity to move past the bitterness, cynicism and divisive battles of the past; a chance to chart a new way forward."
Then she gave a full-throated defense of the exceptionalism of America – not least as seen in the strength of our armed forces. "America, we must also be steadfast in advancing our security and values abroad." Harris said, "As vice president, I have confronted threats to our security, negotiated with foreign leaders, strengthened our alliances and engaged with our brave troops overseas. As commander in chief, I will ensure America always has the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world."
They were almost the same as the words Haley used in her speech dropping out of the race, "our focus should be on to modernize the military. We have too many generals focused on wars of the past. They’re thinking land, air, and sea. What we need to be focused on is artificial intelligence, cyber, space, hypersonic missiles, submarines. That is what we need to be focused on. We will get that back on track. And once our enemies know that we’re strong."
And finally, sounding less like the San Francisco liberal who won two statewide elections in deep blue California – and more like the daughter of immigrants that both she and Haley are – she made a patriotic appeal not to "break a glass ceiling" but to "the greatest privilege on Earth — the privilege and pride of being an American."
We don’t yet know if the convention was successful – but we’ll get our first indication early in the week that follows – when we get the first high-quality media polls following the conventions – and we find out if Trump continues to hold his support against Vice President Kamala Harris – or if he’s losing some of his non-MAGA GOP support to an erstwhile Nikki Haley.