Biden’s Phantom Truce

Secretary of State Tony Blinken visited the Middle East again last week, proclaiming that it was the last chance for the Israelis and Hamas to make a cease-fire deal and recover the hostages that Hamas took during its October 7th attack on Israel. His effort was all for naught, of course, because no one is listening to him or President Biden.

What Biden and Blinken don’t understand — which no Democrat since Harry Truman has understood — is that wars don’t end with parties declaring cease-fires. They end with the defeat of one and the victory of the other.

There is little hope remaining for the hostages who include some five Americans still believed alive. The bodies of six dead hostages were recovered by the Israelis this week. They all reportedly suffered gunshot wounds which are indicative of their murders after capture. (READ MORE from Jed Babbin: Is Israel Deterring Iran?)

There are, to the mystification of Biden and Blinken, other parties to the Hamas-Israel war that are going to prevent any rapid settlement quickly, far less any deal based on Biden’s demands. Included among them are Egypt, Iran, and possibly China.

Hamas’s newly-selected leader, Yayah Sinwar, is one of the planners of the horrific Hamas attacks of October 7 in which about 1,200 Israelis and 32 Americans were killed and about 240 hostages taken. Some of the hostages have been released and there are perhaps 30 or 40 of them still held by Hamas. Among them are the  five Americans.

Those hostages are probably kept in a tunnel under the city of Rafah in a room where Sinwar is believed to be hiding.

Sinwar, valiant jihadi that he is, reportedly wants an Israeli guarantee of his personal safety as a condition of any cease-fire agreement. The Israelis, who condemned Sinwar to death because of the death toll on October 7th, cannot, should not, and will not agree to that.

Egypt is another problem. It demands that the Palestinians — read Hamas — must remain in control of the Philadelphia corridor between Israel and the Gaza Strip. Israel, having discovered dozens of tunnels between Egypt and Gaza, is not going to agree to that. (The “Netzarim corridor,” created by Israelis since October 7 to monitor Palestinian activity, runs across the Gaza Strip. Palestinians demand control of both, which Israel refuses.)

Israeli security is dependent on controlling that area. If it does not, Hamas will — whether or not Sinwar remains alive — reconstitute itself in Gaza and resume attacks against Israel. Moreover, Egypt cannot be trusted. The tunnels between Gaza and Egypt prove Egyptian complicity in helping arm and possibly fund Hamas. Egypt, a poor nation, is probably not funding Hamas, but it may be helping Iran do so.

Last month, China hosted a meeting between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Its influence in the Hamas-Israel war is uncertain but it may be helping Iran — also a Chinese ally — to assert its already enormous influence over the conflict. Hamas is, as we’ve known for some time — an Iranian proxy force.

Biden’s Waning Influence

With all these competing influences, it is probably impossible for any truce to be agreed to at least for now. Blinken’s argument about the “last chance” is incorrect as far as it goes, but it is certainly the last chance for a truce for which Biden could claim credit.

The result of all of Biden’s diplomacy has been that the United States is now ignored by both sides in every effort to settle the Gaza war. Biden has done nothing to obtain the release of the American hostages Hamas still holds.

Hamas, which has never heard a discouraging word from Biden, is getting support from Hizballah, another Iranian proxy. Hizballah, in a significant escalation attacked Israel with hundreds of missiles on Saturday. Israel tried to block further attacks by striking Hizballah positions with about 100 hundred aircraft at almost the same time as the Hizballah missiles were launched. (READ MORE: Iran’s Khamenei Threatens Israel … and the West)

Iran is doing everything it can to help Hizballah except to attack Israel directly as it did in April. It is being deterred by the fact that Israel proved the ability of its Air Force to strike at long distances when it bombed the Yemeni port of al-Houdiedah in response to a drone attack.

The only thing Biden has done correctly is to bolster the U.S. military presence in the region to help defend Israel. That presence is an added deterrent to Iran.

Israel’s Netanyahu government is under enormous pressure to obtain the release of the hostages both alive and dead. Because those hostages are the only leverage Hamas has over Israel, the war is not over. Netanyahu has vowed to crush Hamas once and for all, which is probably not possible. Even if Israel succeeds in killing Sinwar — which it must — another Hamas-like terrorist entity will arise in Gaza to replace Hamas.

Nevertheless, the Gaza war is not at an impasse. Israel will continue its war at least until it kills Sinwar and recovers the remaining hostages, alive or dead.

The only way to end this war is for Israel to win on its own terms, and it is intent — as it must be — to do so.

For the United States to have any role in resolving this war, Biden needs to do what he hasn’t done: to put all possible pressure on Hamas, to blame them for killing hostages and to make clear to China, Egypt, Iran, and any other would-be participants that Israel is not to blame for the war Hamas started or for the civilian deaths that have occurred as a result.

But this Biden will not do because he — and Kamala Harris — are still terrified of the votes she will not get from the Muslim populations of voters here in the U.S. There is no goal for Biden and Harris other than to get her elected.

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