Best of the West debuts: Oregon, Utah, Arizona and Boise State lead first ranking of the 2024 season
The Best of the West offers fans an unapologetic assessment of the top teams in the western third of the country — a collection of schools now scattered across five conferences: the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Mountain West.
The rankings will be available on the Hotline each Sunday during the regular season with the exception of Labor Day weekend, when we’ll delay publication by 24 hours to account for the USC-LSU showdown on Sunday evening.
(The Hotline will publish a basketball version of the BOTW starting in November.)
All times Pacific. Lines taken from BetMGM and FanDuel
1. Oregon
Next up: vs. Idaho (4:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Line: Oregon -44.5
Comment: Anything less than the College Football Playoff will be a major disappointment for the Ducks, whose AP preseason ranking (No. 3) is the program’s best since the 2014 season (the last time Oregon reached the CFP). In fact, there’s a good case to be made that it’s quarterfinals-or-bust for Dan Lanning, Dillon Gabriel and an absolutely loaded roster.
2. Utah
Next up: vs. Southern Utah (Thursday, 6 p.m. on ESPN+)
Line: Utah -37.5
Comment: The stage is set for the first CFP berth in school history, assuming good health for quarterback Cam Rising and a collection of core players that features a superb mix of experience and playmaking. The Utes have changed conferences but not styles: Bludgeon first, show remorse never.
3. Arizona
Next up: vs. New Mexico (7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Line: Arizona -31.5
Comment: Talent isn’t the issue in Tucson. Instead, we wonder how the Wildcats will handle their first AP preseason ranking (No. 21) in nine years and well-deserved status as Big 12 contenders. Despite the return of quarterback Noah Fifita, receiver Tetairoa McMillan and a bevy of starters, the psychological dynamics have changed. So, too, has the coaching staff.
4. Boise State
Next up: at Georgia Southern (1 p.m. on ESPNU)
Line: Boise State -12.5
Comment: The clear favorite to win the Mountain West and, along with Memphis, the frontrunner to earn the Group of Five’s automatic bid to the CFP. Maddux Madsen won the quarterback competition over heralded USC transfer Malachi Nelson. If he rises to the moment, the Broncos should fulfill their potential.
5. USC
Next up: vs. LSU in Las Vegas (Sunday, 4:30 p.m. on ABC)
Line: USC +4.5
Comment: The Trojans open with LSU, close with Notre Dame and play Michigan and Penn State along the way. The retooled defense under first-year coordinator D’Anton Lynn must execute the basics in order for the Trojans to compete for a top-tier finish in their new conference — and reduce the heat on Lincoln Riley.
6. Washington
Next up: vs. Weber State (8 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Line: Washington -27.5
Comment: The following note, courtesy of the Associated Press, perfectly encapsulates the situation in Seattle: The Huskies are the first team since Army in 1951 to be unranked in the preseason poll after finishing the prior season No. 2. Such is life when you have no returning starters on offense, a revamped defense and a new coaching staff.
7. Colorado
Next up: vs. North Dakota State (Thursday, 5 p.m. on ESPN)
Line: Colorado -9.5
Comment: For a moment, let’s ignore the off-field shenanigans in Boulder and focus on the depth chart. The Buffaloes have upgraded their lines of scrimmage, which should produce better protection and field position for quarterback Shedeur Sanders. But the schedule offers few breathers, inside or outside of conference play.
8. Washington State
Next up: vs. Portland State (12 p.m. on The CW)
Line: WSU -28.5
Comment: This unprecedented season will generate plenty of attention for the Cougars so long as they win at a reasonable clip. A bowl berth is essential. So is a competitive showing in the Apple Cup. And so much depends on a quarterback, John Mateer, who has attempted just 19 passes in his college career.
9. Cal
Next up: vs. UC Davis (2 p.m. on ESPN+)
Line: Cal -20.5
Comment: Remove the COVID season, and Justin Wilcox is averaging 5.8 wins per season in Berkeley. That feels like the correct range for 2024: The Bears are good enough to secure another bowl bid but not good enough for us to assume a bowl bid. Four or five plays across 12 games will shape the season.
10. UCLA
Next up: at Hawaii (4:30 p.m. on CBS)
Line: UCLA -12.5
Comment: A journey of (roughly) 20,000 miles begins with the lone soft spot on a brutal schedule staring back at rookie coach DeShaun Foster. The Hotline is deeply skeptical about the Bruins’ prospects for success, not only this season but for many seasons. Institutionally, they aren’t built to win in the Big Ten.
11. Oregon State
Next up: vs. Idaho State (3:30 p.m. on The CW)
Line: OSU -27.5
Comment: As with WSU, the Beavers won’t be lacking for attention, especially early in the season. But with a first-time coach (Trent Bray), uncertainty at quarterback and overhauled lineup of playmakers, the Beavers face a barrage of challenges. Our forecast is admittedly bleak. Then again, we haven’t been wrong about something in at least 10 minutes.
12. Stanford
Next up: vs. TCU (Friday, 7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Line: Stanford +8.5
Comment: The Cardinal is one of the few teams in the BOTW rankings that opens against the type of opponent it will face throughout the fall. TCU looks like a mid-level team in the Big 12 and thus mirrors so many of Stanford’s foes in the ACC. Our view: Loads of close games for Troy Taylor’s second season, but few actual victories.
13. Arizona State
Next up: vs. Wyoming (7:30 p.m. on FS1)
Line: ASU -6.5
Comment: The transfer portal has accelerated the timeline for reclamation projects and raised the bar for Kenny Dillingham’s second season. The Hotline isn’t convinced ASU’s win total will increase markedly given one of the Big 12’s toughest schedules, but the Sun Devils should be competitive more Saturdays than not.
14. Brigham Young
Next up: vs. Southern Illinois (5 p.m. on ESPN+)
Line: BYU -14.5
Comment: The Cougars’ inaugural season in the Big 12 could not have been much worse: They won just twice in league play, were blown out repeatedly and finished with a five-game losing streak. We don’t see much reason for optimism in 2024. And without material improvement, coach Kalani Sitake will enter next year under considerable pressure.
15. Fresno State
Next up: at Michigan (4:30 p.m. on NBC)
Line: Fresno State +21.5
Comment: As noted in the Hotline’s forecast of the Mountain West race, the Bulldogs have a long list of returnees and don’t play Boise State. That combination helps smooth the transition for interim coach Tim Skipper, who assumed command in July when Jeff Tedford stepped down.
Previously published content on the 2024 season
The five biggest Saturdays
Heat check: Five coaches under pressure
How the Big Ten TV selections work
College Football Playoff predictions
Pac-12 bowl projections
ACC projections
Big 12 projections
Big Ten projections
Mountain West projections
Five major trap games in 2024
My AP Top 25 ballot
Analyzing the Big 12 schedule
Your guide to CFP (and other) changes
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