Poll: Harris shrinks Trump's lead in Texas, Cruz slightly ahead of Allred

HOUSTON (KXAN) — Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas by almost five percentage points, according to the first major poll done in the state since the switch happened at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket last month.

The survey, done earlier this month by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, showed Harris performing better in Texas than President Joe Biden did among likely voters. In the June poll, Trump led Biden by nine percentage points (49%-40%). The latest results have Harris shaving off approximately half of the Republican's advantage — with 49.5% now saying they intend to vote for Trump and 44.6% saying they support Harris.

The poll included a group of 1,365 Texans and had a margin of error of 2.65%, according to the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.

The August survey also showed an even tighter race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, falling within the margin of error. The poll put support for Sen. Ted Cruz among likely voters at 46.6%, while his challenger, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, sat at 44.5%. The results are unchanged from what the June survey results showed, pollsters said.

It remained an open question whether Harris' candidacy would have an effect in the Lone Star State, and more polling about her standing in Texas should come out next month. She's set to accept her party's presidential nomination Thursday night at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. She launched her campaign on July 21, the same day Biden endorsed her after he ended his reelection bid. Support quickly coalesced behind the vice president.

Earlier this month, former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke drew viral attention by calling Texas a "sleeper battleground state," though Texas Democrats have long made this claim despite no statewide victories in 30 years. James Henson, the director of the Texas Politics Project, previously told KXAN this is an increasingly common refrain that Democrats are making without much success.

“The state’s undoubtedly becoming more competitive between Democrats and Republicans at the presidential level,” Henson said. “Whether we’ve crossed the threshold that will attract effort, volunteers, enthusiasm, and, maybe most importantly, money, I think is still a little bit of an open question.”

According to the Texas Secretary of State’s Office, the last day to register to vote in time for the November election is Oct. 7. The in-person early voting period begins on Oct. 21, while the last day to apply for ballot by mail is Oct. 25. Election Day is Nov. 5.