Emmy Experts disagree with consensus in star-studded race for Best Documentary Special

“Jim Henson Idea Man” premiered at the Cannes Film Festival on May 18 ahead of its worldwide premiere on Disney+ on May 31, just in time to qualify for the 2024 Emmys. The film ultimately racked up eight nominations and leads our racetrack odds for Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. But not everyone agrees with that consensus. The Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets think differently.

Helmed by Oscar winner Ron Howard, “Idea Man” chronicles the life and career of Jim Henson, creator of the Muppets. It’s the most nominated film in its Emmy race, with bids for its cinematography, directing, picture editing, music composition, sound editing, sound mixing and writing in addition to its nom in the top category. It’s backed by five out of 11 Gold Derby Editors, 21 of our Top 24 Users and 20 of our All-Star Top 24, giving it a significant lead with 71/20 odds overall.

But only one Expert agrees with that. Instead, four out of the eight who have placed their bets as of this writing think Netflix’s “The Greatest Night in Pop” will win for exploring the recording of the legendary all-star musical collaboration “We Are the World.” That film only has two other nominations, though, for directing and sound editing, so those elite journos are taking a chance that the doc has more support from the TV academy than meets the eye. The last three Experts say the winner will be “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life,” director Rob Reiner‘s tribute to the title actor, writer and comedian.

This category has often gone to show business docs that industry peers can surely relate to. The award has recently gone to “George Harrison: Living in the Material World” (2012), “The Zen Diaries of Garry Shandling” (2018), “George Carlin’s American Dream” (2022) and “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (2023), to name a few. But this year there’s only one nominee that isn’t about showbiz: “Girls State,” which ranks last in our odds but could surprise if the entertainment specials cancel each other out. The Apple TV+ film is the followup to “Boys State,” which won in 2021 for following a group of teenagers as they learn how to build a representative government from the ground up. In an election year, that subject matter may especially resonate. So really, you can’t rule anyone out of this contest. Make or update your own predictions here.