Poll shows close race between Salinas, Erickson for Oregon's 6th District

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – In a sequel to the 2022 midterm election, Democratic Representative Andrea Salinas will once again face Republican challenger Mike Erickson in 2024.

Salinas previously won the race against Erickson to represent Oregon's new Sixth Congressional District in 2022, but a new poll – first reported by Politico -- shows she may face a close race in November.

In a memo of a Cyngal poll, released by Erickson's campaign, Pollster Chris Lane said the Tigard businessman is "positioned to oust Salinas" and dubbed the Sixth District race among "the top races to watch in '24."

According to the poll, an initial ballot test showed Salinas with 44% support from respondents compared to Erickson's 42% with 14% undecided -- highlighting the close race with a margin of error of +/- 4.29%.

In another scenario, after messaging, Erickson pulled a three-point lead, according to the poll – showing Erickson with 47% support, Salinas with 44%, and 8% undecided.

The poll also surveyed the candidate’s favorability ratings, with 32% favorability for the freshman congresswoman and 27% for Erikson.

In response to the poll, Erickson said “Congresswoman Salinas has done little to address inflation, rising energy costs, and crime in our cities, and it’s no wonder this race is tied."

He added, “This poll proves that we can win, and as a businessman who has created jobs in Oregon, I know what it takes to fix inflation, keep our communities safe, secure our border, and serve as check-and-balance on Kamala Harris’ economic policies that are crippling middle-class families.”

In a statement to KOIN 6 News, Rep. Salinas’ Campaign Manager Simone Archer-Krauss said “Voters know Mike Erickson for who he really is: An out-of-touch millionaire and MAGA extremist who wants to ban abortion and raise taxes on the middle class. In contrast, Congresswoman Salinas comes from a working family and understands the challenges they face. She is fighting to protect our personal freedoms and make life more affordable for Oregon families. While we always knew this race would be tough, Andrea beat Mike Erickson once before. She fully intends to beat him again and continue delivering for the Sixth District.”

During the 2022 November election, over 7,200 votes separated Salinas and Erickson, who received more than 147,000 votes and nearly 140,000 votes respectively, according to the Oregon Secretary of State's office.

During that race, more than 6,700 votes went to candidate Larry McFarland who was affiliated with the Constitution party.

According to Cygnal, the poll was conducted Aug. 7-9 with 516 likely general election voters. The survey was also weighted “to a likely general election voter universe,” Cyngal said.