Poll finds Gonzalez leads Portland mayor's race, swath of undecided voters

PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) – A poll commissioned by Portland Public Safety Commissioner Rene Gonzalez shows the mayoral candidate is the "frontrunner" of the race, but also shows that nearly 40% of voters are still undecided.

The poll, which was first reported by The Oregonian and obtained by KOIN 6 News, was conducted by Lake Research Partners.

According to the poll -- on an initial ballot with no additional information -- Gonzalez leads the other candidates with 21% of the first-choice vote.

Fellow commissioners and mayoral candidates Mingus Mapps and Carmen Rubio trail Gonzalez with 13% of voter support as first-choice candidates, the poll found, noting 4% support for Keith Wilson and 3% for Liv Osthus.

In a memo with the poll results, Lake Research Partners said their findings show a “significant improvement” of Gonzalez’s polling numbers from earlier in 2024, when he tied for first place and won a ranked-choice voting scenario by a smaller margin.

The memo furthered, “After factoring in second and third-choice votes in a ranked-choice voting simulation, Gonzalez finishes significantly ahead of Carmen Rubio in the final round. Notably, Gonzalez finishes ahead of Rubio in [ranked choice voting] in all four City Council Districts."

"We are pleased to see support has grown over the summer and that Portlanders appreciate the Commissioner's work on homelessness, safety and livability. This is a make-or-break election for our city and there is still a lot of work to do," Amy Wood, campaign manager for Rene Gonzalez's mayoral bid, said in a statement to KOIN 6 News.

While the memo touts Gonzalez’s lead, the poll also shows 38% of respondents were undecided.

Lake Research Partners said they polled 500 likely general election voters in Portland from Aug. 7-11. According to the firm, the poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.4% and the data was "weighted slightly" to reflect the likely demographic profile.

The poll comes as Portlanders will see a new style of voting for the November election: ranked choice voting.

While ranked-choice voting will be new to Portland, it's already used in Alaska, Maine, and about 50 local jurisdictions across the United States.

Portland will be the first to use ranked-choice voting this November to elect a new mayor, auditor and the new 12-member city council, which will have three elected councilors in each of four newly created districts. Multnomah County as a whole goes to the system in 2026.