Harris holds slim lead over Trump in Virginia: new poll

One month after announcing her White House bid to succeed President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slim three-point lead over former President Donald Trump (47-44%) in a head-to-head matchup in Virginia, according to a new poll released Tuesday by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.

The vice president also holds a 45-42% advantage when other candidates are included, the poll found. In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., leads his Republican challenger, retired U.S. Navy Capt. Hung Cao, by a comfortable 49-38% margin.

The new survey is the first Roanoke College Poll that includes Harris as the Democratic party candidate. The vice president formally clinched the Democratic nomination on Aug. 5 — just two weeks after Biden dropped out of the race. Her campaign gave Democrats a slight edge after a previous IPOR poll from last spring for the first time found Trump and Biden, then the presumed Democratic nominee, tied in a head-to-head matchup in the commonwealth.

“The switch from Biden to Harris made a difference in Virginia, but perhaps not as great as some may have thought,” said Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “The news for Harris is certainly better than it was for Biden, but her three-point lead is still within the margin of error.”

Both major party candidates are polling very well within their party, and there is a miniscule number of undecided voters, Wilson added.

Although only 2% of likely voters say they are undecided in the multi-candidate question, 8% (two-way) to 13% (six-way) say they will vote for someone other than Harris or Trump (Robert Kennedy Jr. polls at 6%; Cornel West and Chase Oliver at 2%; and Jill Stein at 0% in the six-way race).

“The party bases remain important, as always. The number who say they will vote third party is declining, and those voters may well determine who wins in Virginia,” Wilson said. “One big takeaway continues to be the chasm between the views of Democrats and Republicans. None of it is new, but it is remarkable that partisans interpret everything through different lenses.”

Nearly four in five (79%) of likely voters are very certain of their vote choice, and another 18% are somewhat certain, the poll found. More than half (60%) are very enthusiastic about voting, and 25% are somewhat enthusiastic.

The economy continues to dominate among the most important issues, being cited by 48% of respondents. Abortion (16%) and immigration (15%) were chosen more frequently than foreign affairs (6%) and crime (4%). Two-thirds (68%) of likely voters plan to vote on Election Day, while 31% say they will vote earlier.

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump at a rally in February in South Carolina. Half of the poll respondents said they thought Trump’s response to to the attempted assassination showed toughness. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Biden’s departure from the race has also impacted the campaign and voters’ perceptions. When asked in the new poll about what their votinge plans had been beforeprior to Biden’s withdrawal, respondents gave Trump a six-point lead (although the candidates were tied in the May poll). Some who had planned to vote for other candidates appear to have changed their minds, and 3% said they had not planned to vote in a Biden-Trump matchup.

With 45%, likely voters generally perceive Harris to be more liberal than Biden, with only 16% thinking she is more conservative. Half of the respondents (50%) believe Trump’s immediate response to the attempted assassination last month showed toughness, and nearly as many (44%) see it as an attempt to gain votes.

A bare majority (51%) believe Trump is a threat to democracy. Slightly fewer (47%) see the Democratic party process of replacing Biden with Harris as such a threat. Slightly more likely voters (56%) see Trump as strong enough to deal with adversaries of the United States, such as President Vladimir Putin of Russia, while less than half (49%) say the same about Harris.

Harris’ approval rating is also underwater at 43% favorable and 53% unfavorable, just slightly better than Trump. Both vice presidential candidates are also viewed negatively, with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz sitting at 34% and 51%, and Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, at 32% and 55%. The U.S. Supreme Court fares slightly better with 45% favorable and 52% unfavorable.

In the U.S. Senate race in Virginia, Kaine breaks the negative trend with 50% favorable — tying his all-time high from six years ago — and 41% unfavorable. Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s ratings rose to 54% favorable, which is his best rating during his term, and 40% unfavorable.

For its poll, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College interviewed 691 likely voters in Virginia between Aug. 12 and 16. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 4.5%.

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