Reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson is a rare sleeper to win again thanks to oddly long odds

Lamar Jackson’s odds to win MVP for the 2024 season are +1200 at BetMGM. If those sound long for someone who already has two MVPs to his name, including last year’s award, it’s because they are.

In the 15 years since Peyton Manning won in 2009, just one reigning MVP entered the following season with odds longer than where Jackson currently stands, according to SportsOddsHistory. That was Matt Ryan, who entered 2017 at +1800 after a 2016 MVP campaign that was largely an outlier from his typical production.

Even Adrian Peterson had shorter odds at +1000 following a rare running back MVP in 2012.

Jackson’s 2023 wasn’t an outlier, though. It was largely the type of production we’ve come to expect from him, albeit over a career-high 16-game span. Which leads to two questions: How is that four players — Patrick Mahomes (+500), Josh Allen (+900), Joe Burrow (+900) and C.J. Stroud (+1000) — have shorter odds than the reigning MVP?

And why aren’t more people jumping on the MVP’s odds considering how long they are?

At BetMGM, Jackson is the pick on just 4.2% of tickets, which ranks ninth behind long-shots like Jared Goff (+2500), Jalen Hurts (+1600) and Brock Purdy (+1600). He’s even further down in money wagered at 2.6%, which ranks 13th. Players like Tua Tagovailoa (+2500), Anthony Richardson (+3500) and rookie Caleb Williams (+5000) have attracted more money.

One reason bettors might be fading Jackson is because repeat MVPs are rare. In the history of the NFL, only five players have won the award in back-to-back seasons, including Manning and Brett Favre, who each did it twice.

But that doesn’t explain why oddsmakers set Jackson’s odds so low relative to past MVPs including Jackson himself, whose +1000 odds after winning in 2019 were second-shortest to Patrick Mahomes. Especially considering how the addition of Derrick Henry figures to open things up for Jackson to have a bigger impact.

The only logical explanation is that Jackson’s potential for injury is being baked into his odds. And that makes him an absolute steal in my view. Contrary to popular belief, Jackson’s running hasn’t left him open to big hits. His injuries in 2021 and 2022 came on passes where any other quarterback could have been hurt. Otherwise, he’s been healthy.

If the bet is on Jackson’s health more than his ability relative to the field, I’ll take that bet any day.