ACC Preview #4 - Virginia
Can the Cavs bounce back?
When the NCAA transfer rules were changed a few years ago, we recognized immediately that Mike Brey and Tony Bennett were in trouble.
Why? Because both coaches prefer to recruit system players and marinate them for a year or three until they are ready and the portal, compounded by NIL, made that very difficult.
Fast forward a few years and Brey is out of college basketball while Bennett, though still effective, is notably off of his career highs.
In 2018-19, Virginia finished 35-3 and had one of the greatest post-season runs in NCAA history to win the national championship.
You have to factor in Covid, which hit the following year, but since 2018-19, UVA has gone 23-7, 18-7, 21-14, 25-8 and 23-11. Virginia missed the tournament in 2021-22 and hasn’t won one tournament game since the national championship game in 2019.
Part of that is Covid-induced chaos (remember when Virginia suffered a Covid wave right before playing Ohio in 2021?), which made recruiting vastly more difficult, and part of it is due to changes sweeping the sport, including, critically, the vastly more liberal transfer rules as mentioned above.
Last year for instance, Virginia was hoping to develop Leon Bond and also hoping that Georgetown transfer Dante Harris would be a major asset.
After the season, Bond boogied off to Northern Iowa and Harris entered the portal, then changed his mind - but by the time he did, Virginia had given out all of its scholarships. He was supposedly coming back as a walk-on but isn’t listed on the roster currently.
Developing guys like Jack Salt and Ryan Dunn really helped Bennett’s program and as good as he’s been, it’s taken him a while to adjust to the new era. Is this year’s team ready to return to his previous form?
Well, let’s take a look.
Dunn and Reese Beekman are off to the NBA and those are massive hits for Virginia. Dunn couldn’t shoot, but he was a superb and versatile defender and Beekman was one of the better guards in the ACC.
Bond was probably on track to be a starter but he opted out. Jacob Groves and Jordan Minor, two of last year’s transfers, are out of eligibility. They’re replaceable.
Virginia returns Blake Buchanan (6-11/225 sophomore), Andrew Rohde (6-6 junior), Taine Murray (6-5 senior), Isaac McKneely (6-4 junior), Elijah Gertrude (6-4 sophomore), Christian Bliss (6-4 redshirt freshman) and Anthony Robinson (6-10/238 lb. redshirt freshman).
In a major bad break for Virginia, Gertrude hurt his knee in a scooter accident and will be out for the entire season. He had a solid chance of starting.
In related news, Bennett has issued a blanket ban on scooters. Just kidding, but it’d be understandable.
Of the other returnees, Isaac McKneely is an outstanding three point shooter. We’ve never been in love with the rest of his game, but he’s not a glaring weakness either. Like a lot of Bennett’s recruits, he’s a good fit for Virginia’s system. He’s pretty strong for a guard, too.
We really liked Rohde at St. Thomas and loved his all-around game. Would it transfer, we wondered?
So far, not so much.
He started but only averaged 4.3 ppg. Rebounds? 1.8. He did get 2.7 apg but at times appeared overwhelmed by the higher level of competition. We love his instincts, but he’s got work to do.
The returnee we’d keep an eye on is Buchanan. He had some flashes last season. He came in at 6-11 and 205 but he’s 225 now and that’s bound to help. His lack of strength limited him last season. Bennett says that Buchanan “thinks quick” and should become a solid defender. After a few years of undersized post players, a big guy in the post is bound to be a relief.
Murray is a senior now and while he’s been an okay player, you probably are searching your data base now trying to remember him. No offense to Murray, but there’s a reason for that. He’s a good shooter but not much else stands out - and he wasn’t a good enough shooter to really have a major impact on what turned out to be a dreadful offense last season.
Virginia has two redshirt freshmen now eligible: Robinson and Bliss.
Robinson was seen as a project coming into college and no one has seen him outside of practice for a year. That said, he’s a big strong kid and could find a role, perhaps as a backup. Like Buchanan, he has put on weight and muscle, in his case 22 pounds, and the’s bound to help. He also appears to understand that redshirting was a smart thing to do and that he needs to work - that’s great.
Bliss had an ankle procedure this past season but is supposedly ready to go. We don’t know much about him, but that’s one great name for a college basketball player.
Virginia brings in some quality transfers: Jalen Warley from FSU, Elijah Sanders from San Diego State, Dai Dai Ames from K-State, Carter Lang from Vandy and of course TJ Power from Duke.
That last one hurts. We said last year that the only thing that he needed was strength and we stand by that. However, he’s listed at 6-9 and 216, the same as he was as a freshman last season. He’s probably stronger, but it hasn’t translated into mass yet.
His three point shooting will be a major asset for Virginia. As we saw at Duke, he can really stroke it. And it will come in handy that Power, who is also a pitcher, has a seriously strong arm. Don’t be surprised if that wins Virginia a game here or there.
Warley is a 6-7 senior now. He is a solid all-round player and he’s a willing defender. He can play point if Bennett wants him there, or he can play several other positions. That versatility could make him great off the bench, too. He’ll be really useful.
Saunders (6-8/225 lb. junior) comes from San Diego State. He shot reasonably well and you have to play defense to play for the Aztecs, so he should fit in.
Dai Dai Ames (6-1 sophomore) is a creative offensive player. He started slow at Kansas State but came on late. He’ll have to adjust to Virginia’s style, and he’ll have to defend, but if he can do that, he’ll find a role.
Lang (6-9/235 lb. sophomore) spent his freshman year at Vanderbilt and transferred back home after Jerry Stackhouse was fired (he’s a native of Charlottesville).
He’ll be useful but mostly likely in practice. Lang is going to be a walk-on, at least for this season. We’ll see after that.
The freshmen are Jacob Cofie (6-10/230) and Ishan Sharma (6-5).
Cofie is a 4-star player and was also Player of the Year in Washington. It may not happen this year, but he’s got potential on both ends of the court. He has real potential.
Sharma is interesting too. As far as we can recall, he’s the first player of Indian descent to compete in the ACC. Right now, three point shooting is his calling card, but he’ll surely diversify as he matures. He may get caught in a numbers game but he too has potential.
Overall, Virginia is in a much better position. The transfers, other than Warley, should be around for more than just one season and the offense should be vastly improved. Power, and Sharma should add a lot to the three point game, Ames should help overall and Saunders and Warley should bring more athleticism and opportunism to the offense.
Buchanan should be improved and if Robinson and/or Kofie can help, that’s a big deal too. McKneely has proven himself and the overall jump in offensive talent may help Rohde find a role as a sort of point forward. He’ll also likely have more opportunities as his teammates draw more attention.
At this point, Virginia’s defense under Bennett is not really a question, is it? The basic strategy is easy: make the other team work like hell for a basic shot, get into their legs and win the game with smart basketball in the closing minutes (assuming the other team isn’t being blown out).
Last year, blowouts went the other way as Virginia got crushed several times - Wisconsin won by 14, Memphis by 23, Notre Dame (shockingly at the time) by 22, NC State by 16, Wake Forest by 19 and Virginia Tech by 14.
Don’t look for that this year. Virginia should be a difficult out again.