Emmy Experts Typing: Can Andrew Scott beat Richard Gadd?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we revisit the limited races that “Baby Reindeer” seems poised to dominate. Or is it?

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re entering the final stretch before Emmys voting begins and our wheel o’ columns has swung around to the limited series race — aka “Just how many categories will ‘Baby Reindeer’ reign supreme in?” Let’s start with the easy ones: The Netflix juggernaut that has deftly compartmentalized its off-screen controversy is basically assured of winning Best Limited Series, Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress for Jessica Gunning, and Best Movie/Limited Writing for creator and star Richard Gadd. If “Baby Reindeer” somehow lost in any of those categories, I’d argue it would count as the biggest upset of the 2024 Emmys race. Most have the “Baby Reindeer” domination going further, into “Beef” territory. Gadd remains the favorite to win Best Movie/Limited Actor and Weronika Tofilska is out in front for Best Movie/Limited Directing for her work on the show’s showstopping fourth episode. Of its above-the-live nominations, only Nava Mau (behind Gunning in the supporting actress race) and Tom Goodman-Hill (a worthy nominee who would be a shock winner for playing such a despicable predator in that fourth episode; he’s almost too good and realistic) are likely to lose on Emmy night. But me being me — and me not falling for “Baby Reindeer” like the gazillion people who watched it on Netflix this past spring — I’ve zagged away from the show in a couple of categories where the zag feels legitimate. (Is this the practice of antidicting the race? Probably.) For starters, I’ve got Andrew Scott in first for Best Movie/Limited Actor. You’ve been soft on “Ripley” since it debuted — and there is no shortage of online chatter about how the show was stiff or boring. But I believe it was more beloved than we’ve given it credit for — it got a better user rating on Metacritic than “Baby Reindeer,” not that any of this matters — and the actors clearly responded to the show, given the relatively unexpected nomination for Dakota Fanning in the supporting race to go along with Scott’s predicted inclusion. Gadd certainly has his fans — pause here for you to mention Jean Smart wants to do something with him – but I’d argue few actors have as much universal appeal among other actors at the moment than Scott. It just feels like “his time” – unless it’s not and Gadd just wins because the voters are going to hit “Baby Reindeer” wherever they can. That’s why I’m slightly more wobbly on the directing side of things. There, I’m also predicting an upset — Issa Lopez for “True Detective: Night Country” over Tofilska. But while the fourth season of “True D” was the nominations’ leader in the limited series genre and Lopez seems like the kind of filmmaker that people want to elevate to an Emmy winner, I wonder if Steve Zaillian will have his own big block of support for the cinematic adaptation of “Ripley.” And if that happens, and Lopez and Zaillian are both strong alternatives to Tofilska, maybe she actually just wins because there’s not a clear consensus pick for a runner-up. I’ll pause here so you can tell me why this is foolish and then please talk to me about the chaos that is Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor.

joyceeng: Like I’ve always said, Scott would win, and probably rather easily, if “Baby Reindeer” did not exist. It does exist though and I think Gadd is more of a Tina Fey and Phoebe Waller-Bridge (writers/creators/stars who win writing and acting in the same year) than a Quinta Brunson and Michaela Coel (writers/creators/stars who win writing but not acting in the same year). And while you think Gadd’s performance is under-discussed, that’s simply not true — people were obsessed with his onstage monologue in the sixth episode, for one. That’s the stuff of Emmy tape dreams! Limited leads don’t submit episodes, but that would be a perfect one for him if they did. The reception to his performance is also an edge he has over aforementioned ladies, who, while great on their respective shows, didn’t really get the same type of raves for their acting as they did for their writing. Brunson and Coel also faced very formidable competition in their acting categories — Coel was at best third in hers — and their shows didn’t win series either like “30 Rock” and “Fleabag” did (you can also toss Dan Levy in here as a writer-actor who won both categories in the same year, but “Schitt’s Creek” won everything). Scott is obviously very well liked and is going to win one of these things sooner than later, but I feel like he lacks the excitement of being a “discovery” that “Baby Reindeer” provides. Fanning’s nomination is also evened out by Goodman-Hill’s since they were both “unexpected” in the same way — she was ninth in the odds and he was eighth. Directing is where “Baby Reindeer” is most vulnerable of its predicted wins, but I can see it taking it as well. Tofilska didn’t direct the whole series and Netflix was savvy enough to just submit her. Josephine Bornebusch would’ve definitely been nominated had she been submitted and there would be more people predicting a loss, like last year when “Beef” had double nominations… but it ended up winning anyway. “Baby Reindeer” is facing tougher competition than “Beef” did, but like you said, there’s no clear No. 2 to Wolfilska there. “Ripley” will have its supporters and “True Detective” will have its, much to the internet’s chagrin. I have no idea what’s going on in supporting actor, but at this point, I want a Ben Mendelsohn-type of upset. It’s what we deserve. Let’s go, Lamorne Morris? But it probably will just be one of the top two.

SEE Experts slugfest: Analyzing 2024 Emmy episode submissions

Christopher Rosen: Morris would be fun. He’s the “heart and soul” of “Fargo” and people just genuinely seem to love him — plus it was the best season of the show since its first. But I agree that we’re down to Robert Downey Jr. and Jonathan Bailey. Both have their demerits, both have their reasons. I’m still on Bailey — the internet’s pick as irate readers and listeners have reminded us for months since we merely noted that “Fellow Travelers” faced an uphill battle before the nominations due to the academy’s traditional response to Showtime material. But I keep thinking Downey might just win after all. He’s a true host unto himself — and that “The Sympathizer” flopped with Emmy voters says to me that Emmy voters just didn’t watch the show. (I still can’t believe it missed easy nominations like prosthetic makeup and directing.) But Downey is Downey and he’s still the biggest star here and he’s coming off an Oscar win and a return to the MCU that — the usual online dissenters accepted — is probably more widely embraced than one might believe. I feel like that’s a race I’ll coin-flip until our final predictions in September. One category we haven’t really discussed is Best Movie/Limited Actress. Ever since Anna Sawai and “Shōgun” left this race, Jodie Foster has been the pick. It makes sense: She’s a legend, “True Detective” was embraced, etc. But what if another Best Actress Oscar winner takes this one? Am I foolish to think Brie Larson might have the momentum for “Lessons in Chemistry”?

joyceeng: No shade, but what momentum? It’d be a great win, but “Lessons” low-key underperformed, missing writing and casting. Not that that matters since only actors vote for acting winners, but it didn’t over-perform in acting, just grabbing the three bids everyone expected. You’re right that Foster feels default-y in and I frankly wouldn’t be surprised if any of these five won, but when we try to look for upsets in categories that feel passion-less or without a super strong fave, the default pick ends up winning most of the time. I don’t know if it’s inertia or the betting line or what. Foster is also aided by the fact that her show is the strongest one of the quintet. I still have Naomi Watts in second. It feels like the nomination was the more difficult part for her. “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans” didn’t light the world on fire, and I know multiple people who didn’t finish it, but everyone is in agreement that Watts is aces. Months ago, there was discussion about whether Watts should go supporting since she’s a borderline lead, but I don’t think she’d beat Gunning there. Is Gunning a bigger lock than, like, Ebon Moss-Bachrach?

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Christopher Rosen: Since I’m a devoted member of the Paul W. Downs stan army, I do think Gunning is a bigger lock than EMB. Not much else here to discuss but here’s a silly question before we go: If “Baby Reindeer” was vulnerable in series, which show would take the win?

joyceeng: None? But to humor you, I’ll go with my fave and top limited nominee “True Detective: Night Country.”

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