China’s Demographic Dilemma: Why Marriage And Babies Are Back In Vogue – OpEd

China is facing a looming demographic crisis. After decades of strict population control policies, the country's birth rate has plummeted to alarmingly low levels. In 2022, China recorded its first population decline in over 60 years, a trend that is expected to continue. The country's total fertility rate - the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime - stands at just 1.2, one of the lowest in the world. By comparison, the replacement rate needed to maintain a stable population is around 2.1.

This dramatic decline in births is the result of China's one-child policy, which was in place from 1979 to 2015. The policy, which limited most urban couples to a single child, was initially introduced to curb the country's surging population growth. However, it has had severe unintended consequences, leading to a rapidly aging population and a severe gender imbalance due to a cultural preference for male children.

As the working-age population shrinks and the elderly dependency ratio rises, China faces the prospect of a shrinking labor force, strains on its social welfare system, and economic stagnation. The government has recognized the urgency of this demographic challenge and has taken steps to encourage higher birth rates, including relaxing the one-child policy and offering various incentives to families.

Shifting Policies and Incentives

In 2016, China abandoned the one-child policy in favor of a two-child policy, and in 2021, it further relaxed the policy to allow couples to have up to three children. However, these policy changes have not yet translated into a significant increase in the birth rate.

To address this, the Chinese government has implemented a range of measures to encourage marriage and childbirth. These include:

1. Financial Incentives:Local governments across China have introduced various financial incentives for families with multiple children. For example, the city of Shenzhen offers a cash allowance of 19,000 yuan (around $2,825) for families with a third child until the child reaches the age of 3. Other cities, such as Weifang and Jingdezhen, offer free high school education or housing subsidies for families with two or more children.

2. Workplace Flexibility:The government has encouraged employers to offer flexible work arrangements, such as the option to work from home for employees with children. This is aimed at making it easier for parents, especially mothers, to balance work and family responsibilities.

3. Reproductive Assistance:The government's political advisors have proposed that single and unmarried women should have access to egg freezing and in-vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments, which were previously restricted to married couples.

4. Cultural Campaigns:The China Family Planning Association, a national body that implements the government's population and fertility measures, is launching pilot projects in more than 20 cities to promote a "new era" of marriage and childbearing culture. These campaigns aim to encourage young people to marry and have children, as well as to address outdated customs, such as high "bride prices" (the dowry paid by the groom's family to the bride's family).

Challenges and Concerns

While the government's efforts to boost the birth rate are understandable, they have faced significant challenges and have drawn criticism from various quarters.

1. Shifting Social Norms:Many young Chinese people, especially in urban areas, are delaying marriage and childbirth or choosing to remain single altogether. This shift in social norms is driven by factors such as increased educational and career opportunities for women, the high cost of living, and a growing preference for individual freedom and self-fulfillment.

2. Coercive Undertones:Some of the government's initiatives, such as the requirement for local authorities to "advocate marriage and childbirth at an appropriate age," have been criticized for having a coercive undertone. There are concerns that these measures could infringe on individual rights and autonomy, particularly for women, who may feel pressured to conform to the government's desired family planning goals.

3. Gender Inequality:China's one-child policy and the resulting gender imbalance have contributed to the objectification of women and the commodification of marriage. The government's efforts to promote marriage and childbirth have been criticized for reinforcing traditional gender roles and perpetuating the belief that a woman's primary value lies in her ability to bear children.

4. Lack of Comprehensive Support:While the government has introduced various incentives, critics argue that these measures are not enough to address the underlying challenges faced by families, such as the high cost of childcare, the lack of affordable housing and the persistent gender inequality in the workplace.

The Broader Implications

China's efforts to boost its birth rate have implications that extend beyond the country's borders.As one of the most populous countries in the world, China's demographic trajectory will have significant global consequences,particularly in terms of its economic and geopolitical influence.

1. Economic Impact:A shrinking and aging population could hamper China's economic growth, as the country may face labor shortages, reduced productivity, and increased pressure on its social welfare system. This could have ripple effects on the global economy, given China's central role as a manufacturing hub and a major consumer market.

2. Geopolitical Implications:China's demographic challenges could also affect its geopolitical standing. A declining population may limit the country's military and economic power, potentially altering the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

3. Global Implications:China's demographic transition is part of a broader global trend of declining birth rates and aging populations, which is being observed in many developed and developing countries. The challenges faced by China may serve as a cautionary tale for other nations grappling with similar demographic shifts, highlighting the need for comprehensive, long-term strategies to address these issues.

China's efforts to encourage its youth to get married and have more children are a response to a pressing demographic challenge that threatens the country's economic and social stability. While the government's initiatives, including financial incentives and cultural campaigns, are aimed at boosting the birth rate, they have faced significant challenges and drawn criticism for their coercive undertones and potential impact on individual rights and gender equality.