Ceasefire in Gaza more remote with the assassination of Haniyeh and promotion of Sinwar

Yahya Sinwar has been “unanimously” chosen as the successor to Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas who was assassinated in Tehran on July 31. Sinwar is reported to be more extreme than his predecessor and is widely understood to be the architect of the October 7 attacks in which 1,200 Israelis were killed and 251 hostages taken to Gaza.

His appointment, alongside Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s continued regional provocations, deals another blow to chances of a ceasefire and the long-awaited return of the hostages.

Sinwar was born in 1962 in the city of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. He is viewed as one of the most extreme figures in Hamas. Sinwar has been jailed in Israel on several occasions and helped to establish the group’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades.

In 1988, after his third arrest, he was handed four life sentences for his involvement in the killing of two Israeli soldiers and four alleged Palestinian collaborators.

However, Sinwar was released in 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange that saw an Israeli soldier called Gilad Shalit freed in return for more than 1,000 Palestinians. As I have written previously, he is now personally dedicated to ensuring the release of all Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

Any suggestion that Hamas may look to pursue more pragmatic avenues to achieve Palestinian liberation under Sinwar seems unlikely. In a post on X on August 7, Israeli columnist Gershon Baskin noted that Sinwar has objected to any discussion of laying down arms and aspires for Hamas to become for Gaza what Hezbollah is for Lebanon.

As well as yielding significant influence in Lebanon, Hezbollah is a regional power. It acts as a proxy for Iran, has a sophisticated arsenal, and has participated in other conflicts across the Middle East.

The promotion of Sinwar, who has served as Hamas’s leader inside the Gaza Strip since 2017, brings the political and military wings of Hamas together and places Gaza at the centre of Hamas. It sends a clear message to Israel that killing the group’s leaders will not weaken Hamas but will instead strengthen its resolve to hold on to Gaza and continue engaging in a violent struggle.

Al Jazeera argues that Sinwar’s presence on the front lines “with resistance fighters and between the children of his people” reasserts the message that the goals Israel is seeking by killing the group’s leaders have failed.

Ceasefire negotiations up in the air

There is disagreement among commentators over what effect the change in leadership will have on the negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages.

Zve Bar’el, a reporter from the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, does not believe that Sinwar’s appointment will alter the direction of the negotiations. He argues that Sinwar, not Haniyeh, had always been the true decision maker in the talks.

Alistair Bunkel from Sky News, on the other hand, argues that reaching a deal will be harder than ever under Sinwar, who is said to have closer ties to Iran and is less pragmatic than other Hamas leaders.

This is a claim that has been backed up by Javed Ali, a former official with the US National Security Council. On August 6, he told the BBC that Sinwar is “much more inflexible and much more difficult to negotiate with” than Haniyeh.

Analyses of the negotiations must also take into account the Israeli position, and specifically that of Netanyahu. Throughout the war in Gaza, Netanyahu has been criticised domestically for not putting the release of the hostages at the top of his agenda.

Critics believe Netanyahu has prolonged the assault on Gaza, in which Israeli forces have killed nearly 39,700 people, in order to ensure his own political survival.

Israel has not publicly acknowledged responsibility for Haniyeh’s assassination. But, according to many, it was yet another example of Netanyahu acting to derail the negotiations.

Just weeks before Haniyeh’s death, in early July 2024, signs of a breakthrough had been reported both by a source in Israel’s negotiating team and a senior US official – though, admittedly, the chances of reaching a ceasefire deal were still limited.

Cynics may also argue that by sanctioning the assassination on Iranian soil, Netanyahu is purposefully attempting to provoke Iran. Research conducted by myself and my colleague, Amnon Aran, concluded that Netanyahu’s “approach to peace is militaristic to its core”. He sees Islamic fundamentalists as a permanent, existential threat to Israel that must continually be abated.

After Sinwar was named as the new leader of Hamas, Israel’s army chief, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, vowed to find and kill him. His appointment will probably be used by Netanyahu to justify a further onslaught on the Gaza Strip.

The promotion of Sinwar, coupled with the position of Netanyahu, ultimately means a ceasefire is unlikely to be reached anytime soon. The destruction of the Gaza Strip and its inhabitants is likely to continue.

Leonie Fleischmann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.