Can Republicans Win in Michigan This November?

Election results from Michigan’s Senate primary race this week were predictable. Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers will face off this November for the state’s soon-to-be vacant Senate seat. But the outcome of the upcoming election isn’t as easy to forecast, though the fates of the Senate and presidential races are bound to be closely linked. 

Former Rep. Mike Rogers received Trump’s endorsement in his race against former Rep. Justin Amash, who attempted to rejoin the Republican Party following several failed political enterprises as a card-carrying libertarian — including a short-lived 2020 presidential exploratory committee and a futile offer to serve as Speaker of the House during last year’s leadership chaos. Rogers beat Amash, his closest competition, by 48 points. 

On the other side of the ticket, Elissa Slotkin coasted to victory against actor Hill Harper, who, despite playing a doctor on TV, garnered only 24 percent support among Democrats. Slotkin has received support from Sen. Debbie Stabenow, the staunchly liberal senior senator from Michigan who has held her seat since 2001. If Stabenow has her way, her retirement will open a spot for Slotkin, 26 years her junior. 

The open Senate seat will likely go to whichever party manages to cinch Michigan’s electoral college votes in the presidential race. It’s hard to imagine a Harris–Rogers voter or a Trump–Slotkin voter. For now, polling remains scattered, with some polls showing a marginal win by Harris while others predict a narrow victory for Trump. Looking to the past, Biden narrowly snagged Michigan in 2020, but Trump won the state in 2016 by an even smaller margin. 

But polling between Rogers and Slotkin, early though it may be, indicates tough times ahead for Republicans in the Great Lakes State. Polls throughout recent months show a significant lead for Slotkin over Rogers. Though the presidential race may determine Michigan’s next senator, the opposite very well could be true. While presidential polling remains in flux, Slotkin’s lead could be a bellwether for Republican defeat come November. 

Whether or not Michigan is a true purple state remains to be seen. Prior to Trump’s narrow victory in 2016, the state had gone blue since Reagan left office. With the exception of Sen. Spencer Abraham, who served one term from 1995 to 2001, Michigan has been represented by Democrat senators since Carter’s presidency. Republicans remain active and successful in some parts of the state’s political life, but it’s hard to garner sufficient conservative support to counterbalance the Democrat powerhouse of Detroit in statewide elections. (RELATED: Gov. Whitmer Pays Migrants Who Move to Michigan)

In addition to the tough fight ahead for Republicans, however, this week’s primary revealed potential pitfalls for the November election. Wayne County, which encompasses the Detroit metropolitan area and is the state’s most populous county with 1.8 million residents, reported results at a lethargic pace this week. 

More than two hours after polls closed, less than 1 percent of the expected vote was reported in the congressional primary for the district. At 11 p.m., with no real data to report, ABC News included inane filler in their election night coverage. 

“Since Wayne County is taking a while to get their results reported, how about some silly Michigan polling?” wrote Mary Radcliffe, detailing the divide between the 51 percent of Michiganders who prefer “regular hard ice cream” and the 23 percent who like “soft serve ice cream” better. By the time ABC News was calling West Coast primaries, only 9 percent of the Wayne County vote was in. (RELATED: Will the 2024 Election Get Lost in the Mail?)

Wayne County has earned a reputation for being “notoriously slow” to report votes following a technical change in reporting. In 2022, the county took days to report votes. Radcliffe forecasted: 

This issue may also come into play in November, when Democrats in the state will be relying on the solidly Democratic county to shore up their numbers statewide … In a critical battleground state, this kind of delay could mean the same sort of result we had in 2020, when a final winner in the presidential race wasn’t called until 4 days after the election.

Michigan is a key state for either party to win this November, but it may not be immediately clear to which candidate the state’s electoral votes should be directed. And even if victory seems likely for Republicans, there’s bound to be plenty of time for Democrat ballots to emerge in Wayne County. Election results in Michigan have been wrong before, but Trump can’t afford to lose Michigan — and Michigan can’t afford a Slotkin victory.

Mary Frances Myler is a contributing editor at The American Spectator. She graduated from the University of Notre Dame in 2022. 

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