Number of Atlantic tropical storms forecast for 2024 lowered slightly; Season still 'extremely active'

AUSTIN (KXAN) — The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicked off with a bang and is expected to continue this trend.

According to the latest forecast by Colorado State University, updated on Aug. 6, the hurricane season is predicted to have 23 named storms, including 12 hurricanes and 6 of those becoming major hurricanes, of Cat. 3 strength or higher.

This update dropped the number of named storms from 25 to 23. The 23 total includes the first four storms of the season, Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and current storm Debby.

Their previous update back on July 9 raised CSU's initial forecast to 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. CSU has forecast an "extremely active season" this year and seems to be keeping the trend going.

La Niña expected soon

While sea surface temperatures are leading to rapid intensification, another reason for this updated forecast is the formation of La Niña during the peak of hurricane season.

The latest NOAA ENSO calls for a 70% chance of La Niña conditions from August to October. This means there will be less vertical wind shear which can "chop" off the top of a hurricane and stop it from forming.

A rare Category 5 storm in June

This year has already seen this forecast come to life with a rare Category 5 hurricane in Beryl. The storm rapidly intensified within 24 hour from Tropical Depression to a Category 1 hurricane. Within the next 24 hours, Hurricane Beryl intensified further to a Category 4, all thanks to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures.

After landfall on Carriacou Island, Grenada, the storm intensified again, becoming a Category 5. Its track eventually took the storm to the Gulf of Mexico, where it made landfall near Matagorda, Texas, on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane.

Florida pummeled by Debby and a new storm on the way

Hurricane Debby made landfall on August 5 in Steinhatchee, Florida, as a Category 1 storm, bringing heavy rainfall in the Big Bend area.

Rainfall estimates continue the potential of 10 to 20" of rain in some spots, leading to flash flooding. The storm is expected to move into the Atlantic before making landfall again in South Carolina.

There is a new area to watch for tropical development out in the Caribbean. While an area of disorganized storms currently has a low chance of developing, concerns of rapid intensification in the Gulf are causing meteorologists and officials on edge after Beryl.