Red Sox series preview: A Wild Card battle

This is a big series!

Royals fans have been longing for a post-season atmosphere for years, and they could get a taste this week as the Boston Red Sox head into town for an important three-game series. The Royals currently hold a 2.5 game lead on the Red Sox for the final Wild Card spot, widening their lead after a successful 6-1 road trip.

Boston Red Sox (59-51) vs. Kansas City Royals (63-50) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Red Sox: 4.95 runs scored/game (4th in MLB), 4.65 runs allowed/game (22nd)

Royals: 4.74 runs scored/game (9th), 3.90 runs allowed/game (3rd)

The Red Sox took 2 of 3 from the Royals at Fenway just before the All-Star break, but have dropped 9 of 15 since then. Boston has been very good on the road this year - their 32-23 record is the third-best road record in baseball. They took two out of three against the Rangers in Texas over the weekend, putting up 22 runs.

The strength of the Red Sox is with their offense - All-Stars Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran are both among the top 11 hitters in the American League in wRC+. Both hitters have been on fire lately - Dever is hitting .370/.416/.750 in the last 30 days while Duran is hitting .347/.396/.624 over that time. Only five teams have hit more home runs, and they have actually hit far more home runs on the road (80) than at Fenway Park (60). They have the second-highest batting average in baseball at .262 and are second in slugging percentage at .444. They also have the third-highest strikeout rate.

Connor Wong’s .301 batting average is the 14th-highest in baseball for anyone with at least 300 plate appearances. Rookie Wilyer Abreu has destroyed righties, hitting .291/.350/.561 against them. Masataka Yoshida is hitting just .229/.325/.312 on the road this season.

Only five teams have stolen more bases than the Red Sox - David Hamilton is tied for the league lead, with Duran fourth. The Red Sox are middle of the road defensively, with Duran among the best defensive outfielders, while Devers has been terrible, and Connor Wong is one of the worst framers in baseball.

The Red Sox picked up James Paxton before the trade deadline after the Dodgers designated him for assignment. He gave up six runs in less than five innings in his first start for the Red Sox, and he hasn’t gone more than five innings in a start since June 17. His velocity is down this year, and he has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate of any pitcher with at least 90 innings pitched, and the eighth-highest FIP. He relies a lot on his knuckle curve, which has a whiff percentage of 36.1 percent.

Bello held the Royals to three runs in 6 1/3 innings in a Red Sox win on July 14. He has the fourth-highest ERA of any pitcher with at least 100 innings, although he was a bit better in July with an ERA of 4.29 in six starts. Bello throws a sinker 40 percent of the time to yield a 50 percent groundball rate, also mixing in a slider, change up, and occasionally flashing a 96 mph four-seamer.

Kutter Crawford shut out the Royals for seven innings, allowing just three hits in July, but has struggled since the break, giving up 16 runs in 15 innings in three starts since then. He the 10th-highest FIP of any qualified pitcher and has given up 26 home runs, most in baseball. He has a diverse arsenal, throwing a 92 mph four-seamer, a cutter, sweeper, splitter, and occasionally a knuckle curve.

Red Sox relievers have a 4.02 ERA with the fourth-lowest walk rate, and the sixth-most blown saves in baseball. They added Lucas Sims from the Reds and Luis Garcia from the Angels at the trade deadline. Sims has the 12th-highest walk rate among relievers, but the highest soft-hit rate. Closer Kenley Jansen has converted 20-of-23 save opportunities this year, but has blown two saves in the past two weeks and has given up six runs in his last seven innings. Zack Kelly has the 12th-highest home run rate among relievers. Lefty Cam Booser does not have a platoon split, with lefties hitting .250/.277/.333 against him. Brennan Bernardino has given up nine runs in his last seven innings.

This begins a tough stretch for the Royals where the next eight games, and 31 of the next 37 games, are against teams with winning records. But the Royals have a chance to pad their lead against the Red Sox and improve their chances of making it to the post-season.