Deaths of Hamas and Hezbollah Leaders Doom Cease-Fire Hopes
Within 24 hours, Hezbollah’s most senior military commander and Hamas’ political leader were assassinated in the capitals of Lebanon and Iran, respectively. Israel took responsibility for the first strike but declined to comment on the second attack, despite accusations from Iran and Hamas.
Iran’s involvement has mainly been through proxies such as Hezbollah. However, an attack on Iran’s capital will likely provoke a direct response.
These two deaths will likely provoke coordinated responses from militant actors and inevitably escalate war across the region.
The first of these assassinations was Hezbollah’s leader Fuad Shukur, also known as Sayyid Muhsan. He was killed on Tuesday by a strike that hit a civilian area in Beirut, Lebanon. At least three other people were killed and dozens were injured. The Israeli military announced:
Israeli Air Force fighter jets eliminated the Hezbollah terrorist organization’s most senior military commander and the head of its Strategic Unit, Fuad Shukr ‘Sayyid Muhsan,’ in the area of Beirut.
Shukur was a senior advisor to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. He was also a member of Hezbollah’s highest military body. Israel claimed he was responsible for the deaths of the 12 children killed in a rocket attack in the Golan Heights on Saturday.
He was also wanted by the U.S. government for the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing, which killed hundreds of American military personnel and foreign service workers there on a peacekeeping mission.
Since the war in Gaza began, Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged missile attacks almost daily. For months, the conflict appeared unlikely to escalate, but the suspected Hezbollah strike on a Golan Heights soccer field July 26 killing 12 Israeli children, followed by Israel’s retaliatory strike in Lebanon’s capital, may change that.
Hezbollah official Ali Ammar told Al-Manar TV, “[t]he Israeli enemy has committed a great stupid act in size, timing, and circumstances by targeting an entirely civilian area”… The Israeli enemy will pay a price for this sooner or later.”
The second attack occurred in the early hours of Wednesday morning, intensifying the situation. Ismail Haniyeh, the chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau was killed by an airstrike in Tehran, Iran.
Shortly before his death, he attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Haniyeh briefly served as prime minister of the Palestinian Authority in 2006 and a year later he established an independent Hamas-led government in the Gaza Strip.
Haniyeh’s role as the political figurehead for Hamas made him a likely target.
In April, an anonymous Israeli diplomat claimed “Israel is ready to go after any member of Hamas involved in violence.” Considering the ongoing conflict and statements like these, Iran and Hamas immediately blamed Israel, although there is no evidence of Israeli involvement, and they have not commented on the killing.
During the war in Gaza, Iran’s involvement has mainly been through proxies such as Hezbollah. However, an attack on Iran’s capital will likely provoke a direct response.
Senior Iranian officials have already pledged retaliation:
The response to an assassination will indeed be special operations — harder and intended to instill deep regret in the perpetrator…. Don’t do anything you may regret.
When asked about the recent attacks, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the events underscored the “imperative of getting the cease-fire.” An anonymous Western diplomat is less optimistic claiming “[t]he events in Tehran and Beirut [will] push the entire Middle East to a devastating regional war.”
The latest developments make peace negotiations appear increasingly unlikely. Instead, the stage is set for the conflict to escalate to unprecedented levels of direct confrontation.
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