Potential tropical development brewing in the gulf
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- As the first of August arrives so too does tropical development. Usually July marks a low point in the season for the Atlantic but with Saharan dust now in the rearview mirror for the ocean this leaves us with the prime conditions for a chance of storms to form, including the newest development.
Newest development in the tropics
Currently we are watching a well defined tropical wave that has been building over the last few days just north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The latest prediction from the National Hurricane Center has given this storm a 30% chance of it developing in the next 2 days and a 70% chance of it developing in the next 7 days.
Slowly, models have been pulling the storm farther towards the west side of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
While most of the models are still indecisive on an exact area of impact most of the tracks have it steering towards Florida. With so much time until point of impact, these models can, and will, change. Development is expected to increase over the weekend with the storm becoming a tropical depression.
In-Depth: Fuel for the storm
All eyes will be on the strength of the storm as it travels through very warm waters. Normally a storm would only need sea surface temperatures to reach 80 degrees to be considered favorable for a storm to develop, however above normal temperatures have been recorded. A few stations in the gulf have recorded up to 89° which is just above the average for this time of year. Mix in low wind sheer and you have the perfect recipe for a storm to strengthen and quickly.
We are also approaching when storms begin to form more frequently with mid-August starting the peak of hurricane season and lasting through mid-October
Pacific continues active season
The Pacific continues to show an active season with Tropical Storm Carlotta on the move towards the west. As of now, the storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the next few days. Two other areas of interest have been identified with one are just off the coast of Central American with the greatest chance of becoming a storm in the next 7 days with an 80% chance of development.