Who will win in Arizona in November? It’s a toss-up − like it has been for years

(The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.)

David R. Berman, Arizona State University

(THE CONVERSATION) Arizona is considered a crucial swing state that could help propel either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris to the White House in November 2024.

With the exception of Democrat Bill Clinton’s win there in 1996, Arizona has voted Republicanin every presidential election from 1952 through 2016. Democrats won the presidential election there in 2020, but Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump.

It wasn’t always this way. Before the 1950s, campaigning in Arizona was a relatively simple matter for candidates such as Carl Hayden, a Democrat who served as a U.S. senator from Arizona from 1927 to 1969.

“Oratory wasn’t a big thing. I just told them I was a Democrat,” Hayden said in 1971.

A 2-party state emerges

In the 1950s, the party balance in Arizona began to change for a number of reasons, including demographic shifts. This era ushered in a more competitive two-party system in Arizona, giving Republicans an upper hand.

During...