Floridians Overwhelmingly Support Abortion Measure—But Could Still Be Voting for a Ban

In April, the Florida Supreme Court ruled that a six-week abortion ban could take effect starting May 1. But the court simultaneously ruled that a proposal to enshrine a right to abortion in the state Constitution could be included on the ballot in November—and the first polls are promising: According to the poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab published Tuesday, 69% of Floridians say they’ll vote for the measure, Amendment 4, which prohibits restrictions and bans on abortion in the state until fetal viability. In Florida, ballot measures must receive at least 60% of the vote to take effect instead of just a simple majority. So, this poll is certainly cause for hope at a time when Florida’s ban has decimated abortion access across the entire South. But the same poll also shows Floridians support former President Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris by a 49 to 42-point margin. And despite Trump’s not-so-reassuring assurances to the contrary, his deep connections to the far-right Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 indicate he'd enact a national abortion ban. Project 2025 details how a Republican president—ahem, Trump—could wield the Comstock Act, to ban abortion without going through Congress. The dormant, 19th-century law bans the dissemination of “obscene” materials, including abortion pills and/or medical products used by abortion providers. In other words, Amendment 4 could prevail—but Floridians could still continue to live under an abortion ban by electing Trump. It’s not uncommon for progressive ballot measures, like, say, a right to abortion, to significantly outperform Democrats in red states like Florida. (A poll of Florida voters from June showed abortion is far more popular than Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), by a 69 to 52% margin.) These vote splits will always be something of a head-scratcher for me, but as Kelly Hall, executive director of the Fairness Project, told Jezebel earlier this month, large swaths of voters don’t see certain political issues like abortion from a partisan perspective: “A lot of our political coverage is presented through this partisan lens with voters thinking of themselves as ‘red’ or ‘blue,’ but people support a lot of different issues across the spectrum regardless of political identity,” Hall said. “We’re seeing overwhelming support for abortion rights, record-shattering numbers of people saying ‘we want to vote on this issue ourselves and this shouldn’t be political football.’”  That helps explain why abortion rights or abortion rights-related measures have sweepingly triumphed in all states where they've been on the ballot since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade—including Kansas, Ohio, Michigan, and others. But, again: If Floridians want abortion rights (and they clearly do), this is a fundamentally partisan issue, because one presidential candidate is all but certain to enact a national abortion ban, and that would effectively cancel out voting for Amendment 4.  The consequences of Florida's recent six-week ban are far-reaching. As the last state in the region to offer abortion before its ban took effect in May, Florida provided 80,000 abortions in 2023, which included an estimated 7,000 patients who traveled from another state. In June, the Florida Access Network abortion fund told reporters on a press call that the average distance callers now have to travel for an abortion is over 900 miles. The closest state where Floridians can get abortions—and only through 12 weeks—is North Carolina, which is more than one state over. Stephanie Loraine Pineiro, executive director of FAN, called Florida's ban “the biggest change in the abortion access landscape” since the Dobbs decision.  The best hope for restoring abortion access in Florida is voting for Amendment 4—and voting against the Republican candidate who so…