ru24.pro
News in English
Календарь
Июль
2024
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Goodbye smoke-filled rooms, hello social media: The punditry and powerbrokering of 1968 is back.

0
The Moderate Voice 
Modified Biden-Harris campaign sign.

Once upon a time, Democrats nominated a vice president after the president decided not to run for re-election. One problem: the VP had not appeared on any caucus ballot. But backroom powerbrokers pushed him to the top of the ticket at the convention, securing the nomination.

The year? 1968. The candidate: Hubert Humphrey. The winner: Richard Nixon.

Since the CNN media event last month (it was not a ‘debate’), political pundits (mostly White males) have beat a steady drum, reflected in headlines and social media posts: Joe Biden must withdraw.

.

Then Hollywood got involved. Again, mostly White males.

.

Then the oligarchs, except for the ones from Silicon Valley who have decided the Trump-Vance ticket will best support their riches.

.

Then came Covid.

And today, the withdrawal.

When Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to run for re-election, it was 31 March 1968. It’s almost four months later today.

There are about three months until overseas, military and service voters get their ballots [1]. When the convention happens, it will be less than two months before voting begins.

The nomination system was different in 1968: to call it opaque does the word an injustice. Convention delegates were often appointed by the state party. Power brokers within the party controlled its levers.

Eugene McCarthy won six contests (including New Hampshire) and Robert F. Kennedy won five before being assassinated on 05 June 1968. Humphrey? Zero.

The convention was, in a gross understatement, chaos. The Vietnam War was in full force and overshadowed Johnson’s successes domestically. Riots and conflicts with police took place outside the Chicago (yes, Chicago) Democratic National Convention [2].

How the nomination process changed after 1968

Up until 1968, the nomination process was “fundamentally undemocratic” according to critics. Primaries: non-binding. Winning a primary was a way to show strength to party brokers.

The Democratic National Committee created a commission, colloquially known as the McGovern–Fraser Commission, in response to the chaos of 1968. One result: state parties had to develop explict rules for delegate selection.

Its analysis of the 1968 process was scathing:

In at least twenty states, there were no (or inadequate) rules for the selection of Convention delegates, leaving the entire process to the discretion of a handful of party leaders.

More than a third of the Convention delegates had, in effect, already been selected prior to 1968 – before either the major issues or the possible presidential candidates were known. By the time President Johnson announced his withdrawal from the nomination contest, the delegate selection process had begun in all but twelve states…

Secret caucuses, closed slate-making, widespread proxy voting – and a host of other procedural irregularities – were all too common at precinct, country, district, and state conventions.

How the nomination process in 2024 is bringing us full circle

We have a vice president running for the nomination who did not appear on any primary or caucus ballot. The difference is that her running mate did. But the nominee picks the VP, not the delegates.

We have a president forced out by pundits and donors with no regard for his historic track record. Like LBJ.

.

Nor is there any regard for his having appeared in and won all caucuses and primaries.

.

The delegate system is no longer 100% democratic. Each state party has a series of “superdelegates” who are party faithful and electeds. However, in 2018, the DNC somewhat restricted their influence. How much influence will they have in 2024?

Will elected delegates vote for Kamala Harris, the current vice president and Biden’s choice? Maybe. Maybe not. They are not bound to do so.

Will the event devolve into chaos, as it did in 1968 [3]?

Will the men refuse to endorse a woman of color? How would Democratic women, many who were lobbying for Biden to remain in the race, respond? What about the under 30 voter? How will she respond if Harris is pushed out?

.

Will the ‘reality TV show’ aspect of the convention be enough to drive viewersip and interest by those not at the convention? Will it create buzz that lasts to November?

So many questions, no answers.

Most Democrats probably see the existential threat that is Donald Trump. However, the Robert Kennedy, Jr. potential as a spoiler (like George Wallace in 1968) is worrisome [4].

What will non-party affiliated voters do?

Mike Luckovich is optimistic:

.

A word about the initial GOP response to today’s news

First, the GOP didn’t object to Humphry being selected at the convention despite having not campaigned against Robert F. Kennedy (NY, assassinated) , George McGovern (SD) or Eugene McCarthy (MN).

That’s because there is nothing to object to before there is an official nominee at the convention. Shame on news media for writing headlines that imply the Republican party has a leg to stand on.

Each party is an independent organization that does its own thing regarding the nomination process. The other party has no oversight role. That’s why in Washington state, Democrats hold caucuses and Republicans, a primary.

Second, earlier this year, the Ohio Secretary of State was adament that this year they planned to enforce the ballot nomination schedule. No nominee by August 1? No name on the ballot.

In 2020, the Republicans held their convention in August. That’s because tradition has the party in power holding its convention last. The law in 2020 was the same as in 2024; there was no peep about a delayed candidate nomination not making the Ohio ballot.

The legisature stepped in and moved the deadline to September 1, in line with prior presidential elections. Ohio Democrats were pushing for a voice vote prior to the convention. On Friday, Ohio Democratic Party spokeswoman Katie Seewer said, “We do know for sure that we can’t trust Ohio Republicans.”

Third, demands that Biden step down now that he’s not running? No precedent. No one suggested LBJ turn the White House over to Humphrey. Maybe he would have defeated Nixon if he had already served as president.

.
[1] Washington State distributes ballots to overseas, military and service voters 45 days before the election. That’s three months from now; it will be two months after the convention.

[2] Chicago conventions since 1968: one in 1996. This is the second.

[3] It already is. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is threatening to become a Democrat again so he can run for president.

[4] I can’t let my mind turn to comparisons with his father’s 1968 candidacy.

 
~~~~
 

The stakes in November have never been more urgent, nor the choices more extreme.

Remember: you are not voting for one person. You are voting for a team.

I’m voting for Team America not Team Russia-Hungary-North Korea.

The post Goodbye smoke-filled rooms, hello social media: The punditry and powerbrokering of 1968 is back. appeared first on The Moderate Voice.