China Agrees to Dial Back Tensions at Second Thomas Shoal

The Philippine government has negotiated a deal with China to de-escalate tensions at Second Thomas Shoal, a longtime flash point in the Philippine exclusive economic zone. Chinese forces have repeatedly assaulted Philippine supply convoys at the shoal with ramming and water-cannoning tactics, injuring multiple Philippine servicemembers.

The new agreement covers arrangements for re-provisioning the soldiers on the Philippine outpost at the reef, but further details were not disclosed. "Both sides continue to recognise the need to de-escalate the situation in the South China Sea and manage differences through dialogue and consultation," the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said in a statement. 

According to the AP, Philippine diplomats refused two of Beijing's key demands. China wanted the Armed Forces of the Philippines to give Chinese forces advance notice before carrying out supply convoys, and to pledge not to bring construction materials to the outpost. Neither of these Chinese priorities made into the final agreement, a Philippine official said. 

The Philippine military has not been able to carry out a rotation and resupply mission for the outpost since June 17, the day that China Coast Guard units assaulted two Philippine Navy supply boats with high-speed ramming and bladed weapons, injuring eight servicemembers. The long delay and increasingly aggressive Chinese tactics prompted calls for stronger measures, potentially including the involvement of Manila's allies (like the United States). 

The Chinese side also showed signs of leaning towards escalation. Last week, Chinese think-tank director Wu Shicun recommended that Beijing should give Manila a deadline to remove the garrison at Second Thomas Shoal, then cut off all supplies.

"After a certain period of blockade, the Philippine military personnel stationed at the reef will face a 'survival crisis'. China could then, from a humanitarian perspective, establish a 'special corridor' allowing the Philippines to retrieve its military personnel stationed there," Shicun suggested.